Happy Fourth of July to everyone! I am sure many of you can predict, but the weather remains much of the same today. Hot and humid with isolated storms possible in the afternoon hours. Taking a glance at the overall weather pattern below, we see a ridge (high pressure system) still in place over the southeast. This will begin to work its way eastward this afternoon, allowing for southern flow to return tomorrow and Saturday. As this ridge begins to weaken, shower potential will increase.
Taking a look at the latest HRRR model run, we see those isolated storms popping up this afternoon. Lately, the HRRR runs have been over predicting the formation of these storms across east TN. As day time heating is the main driver of these storms, it is very challenging for models to pick up on when and where they may form. Nonetheless, you can expect much of the same as yesterday. Isolated to scattered storms are likely to begin popping up early this afternoon and carry on to the early evening. For you firework lovers, the sun will be setting around the 9 o'clock hour this evening. Based on the latest data, I would not rule out a residual storm or two. As the night grows, the storms will begin to "fizzle out" due to cooling temperatures. Many of these storms will form in the Plateau and move eastward through the afternoon. As the sun is setting, expect most of these cell's to be in the higher elevations or to the southern portion of the state. This will allow for a nice night to enjoy many of the firework shows planned around the east Tennessee area.
Below is your day outlook across east TN. I released this graphic this morning for those following along on social media, but I will place it below as a reminder for the day. I know many cities around the area (Knoxville, Kingston, Oak Ridge, etc.) are planning a firework show, so go out and enjoy it! For most of the area by that time I expect it to be partly cloudy and dry. As I said, if there are any storms, they are likely to be to the south of the valley or to the east (in the higher elevations).
Looking ahead into Friday and the weekend, shower chances will increase slightly. As the ridge begins to break down and weak shortwaves move through, expect storms on and off through Friday afternoon, and the highest precipitable day on Saturday. Sunday and early next week we will return to what we have been dealing with recently (hot, humid, isolated afternoon storms).
Taking a look ahead, the Climate Prediction Center thinks we will remain average (both temperature wise and precipitation wise) through the next week or so. I tend to agree, as temperatures will likely stay in the upper 80's and low 90's for much of next week. I also believe the "summer-time" flow we have been dealing with will persist, allowing for our average rainfall across the region. As always thank you for viewing our content and staying up to date here. I hope everyone has a magnificent Independence Day and weekend.
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