Good afternoon! Sunshine will begin funneling in this afternoon keeping temperatures somewhat comfortable in the lower 50's. Looking ahead, many questions are still out there on the idea of snow.
Model data is having trouble pinpointing this next event. To give you an idea, these are the outputs from model to model:
NAM: gives the valley an aggressive 3-4 inches
GFS: Up to half an inch in the valley
RAP: No snowfall
ECMWF: Up to half an inch
As you can tell from a few of the model's above, there is lots of disagreeance. The biggest factor in determining snowfall will be temperatures. Models are in sync we'll start the morning with all rain but by the early afternoon, a transition will begin taking place. The timing of this cold air advecting in, how cold it will make the lower level of the atmosphere, and how much moisture will still be around are all questionable. We will continue to closely monitor the latest this afternoon, overnight, and early into Thursday.
Based on the latest data, here are the totals broken down by topographic region:
Plateau: upwards of half an inch with upwards of an inch for the southern Plateau
Valley: Up to half an inch
Smokies: 1-3" with 2-4" likely in the higher elevations
Again, I will emphasize the variability within the data which plays a roll in the forecast. Changes are likely, so continue to check in with us here and on social media as we will provide updates throughout the day and into Thursday. As for impacts, they will be minimal with any accumulation mainly sticking to grassy and elevated surface.
Enjoy the sunnier skies to close out the day today and keep in mind rain to snow showers are possible tomorrow.
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