First Snow Chances Of The "New" Year

Good evening! I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and brief break. A look ahead shows a quickly evolving "winter-like" system working across the region. The latest radar single shot has light to moderate rainfall working through much of East Tennessee overnight. For those seeing this Monday morning, some light showers are likely out of the door but a dry wave will arrive mid-morning to early afternoon. 

Looking at the temperatures the past 24-hours, you can see where the much cooler air sits. A trailing cold front from the low to our south will funnel through midday tomorrow. Not only will it bring snow chances but also the coldest temperatures we have seen since the beginning of 2020. High's Tuesday will be in the 30's with overnight low's in the teens (for some) and 20's (for most). 

As mentioned above, an area of dry air will arrive mid-morning to early afternoon (chilly & windy during this time) before the transition to snow showers works across the region. As seen below, snow showers are likely across East Tennessee but totals look very limited, at least here in the Valley. Walking through what you can expect now through Tuesday morning, showers will fulfill much of tonight. By the morning hours of Monday, showers will be limited with a period of cloudy skies. During this time, temperatures will continue falling through the day leaving mid 30's for the evening commute. High's for the day will come Monday morning near the mid 40's. As of now, the transition time to snow will take place sometime between 4 pm and 8pm. Of course the Plateau and regions to the west will see the transition sooner than the Valley, the entire area will likely see some flakes falling tomorrow evening/night.

In fact, the Valley will more than likely see some flurries to a dusting of snow. Depending on the transition time and how much moisture is wrapped in behind the low, some areas could see up to half an inch (leaning on the lesser amounts). Outside of the valley though, the highest elevations of the Smokies could see upwards of a foot. For the populated areas of the foothills anywhere from half an inch to 2 inches is possible with higher amounts as you work east. To our west, the Plateau should see anywhere between half an inch and 2" with the highest peaks seeing locally higher amounts. Overall, the Valley looks to get the short end of the stick (as usual). This isn't all bad though as travel conditions in these locations will likely be safer than those with higher snow amounts. Even with that said, patchy ice will be possible Tuesday morning. Heavy winds tomorrow should do a good job of evaporating a lot of the road surface moisture but still be weary into Tuesday morning. 

Be sure to tune in for updates Monday (especially the second half of the day). As of now, we are not expecting a major impact to travel here in the valley but things can always change with these winter events. Stay dry, especially if you are still out and about tonight, and definitely stay warm as strong winds and cold temperatures will funnel in throughout the day tomorrow.