Heavy Rain & Storms Possible Later This Week

8/1/2023

Good morning! Another pleasant day is in the works, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s under most sunny to partly cloudy skies. Most will stay dry but a very isolated shower can't be entirely ruled out for the higher terrain this afternoon. As far as the image below, the Tropics remain active. The National Hurricane Center identifies two areas of concern, one of which bares a 40% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. The good news is both are expected to march northward, with little impacts to the CONUS.

Moving forward, our sights are set on our next disturbance. High pressure sits to the north, but will pull out through Wednesday. This will leave a stalled boundary hanging just south of the area, where low pressure will develop along it to the west and slowly work east with time. Moisture will return ahead of this system, where isolated to scattered showers will start as soon as Wednesday. The best chances come Thursday into early Friday as the low slowly works across portions of the area. Scattered activity will remain possible Friday afternoon through the weekend, but generally becomes more of our usual summertime pop up junk Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will also rebound into the upper 80s to around 90 Saturday and Sunday.

The biggest concern moving forward will be the threat of flash flooding and/or gusty thunderstorms. Looking below, the WPC has upgraded the area to a slight risk for flash flooding. With a slow moving low pressure system on a quasi-stationary boundary, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be a concern through Thursday. Those that see repeated activity (training) will pose the biggest threats of excessive rainfall.

For those that missed our post yesterday, rainfall totals were generally in the 0.75-1.75" ballpark. As of this morning, WPC suggests this estimate has almost doubled. There remains some uncertainty in the true path of the low and associated boundary, so will hold to 1-2" until clearer data arrives, but do be weary of heavy rainfall potential to come. Have a way to receive warnings if they are issued and be sure to check back in for the latest on amounts and any severe weather potential (low right now).