Patchy fog for some as we start off the morning, otherwise mostly clear across East Tennessee. Check out the disturbance upstream to the northwest though, broad cloud cover and heavy showers associated with that complex but will weaken and dissipate through the morning hours. That said, blow off clouds from the system will pass into our area, where increasing cloud cover will be the trend today. Most will steer dry through this afternoon, with shower chances picking up this evening, overnight, and into Thursday.
Looking at our next series of disturbances, our first arrives tonight into Thursday followed by several more thereafter. As a result of the rounds of rainfall expected, a Slight risk of flash flooding (at least a 15% chance) has been put in place for the entire area. Rainfall amounts have generally stayed the same as yesterday, so we are up-ticking from our original amount to say 2-4" will be possible. These higher end amounts look more promising across southeast Tennessee. With all warm season complexes, higher amounts will be possible especially for any locations that see repeated rounds of activity. Have a way to receive warnings, as heavy rainfall could leave to flooding and a few isolated strong storms could become severe. Again the primary timeframe for heaviest rain will come Thursday to Friday night, followed by scattered (mainly afternoon) activity Saturday and Sunday.
Checking out those rainfall totals for yourself, you can see the trajectory of storms over the next couple of days. A northwest to southeast line is favored, following a line from Western Kentucky to Northwest South Carolina. Because some areas are more flash flood prone (recent rainfall, lower lying, type of terrain, etc.) than others, be sure to stay alert and have several ways to receive warnings- especially in the overnight hours.
That will do it for today....be sure to check back in for the latest on rainfall and the flash flooding threat. Confidence continues to grow a soaking rain is likely, which could result in scattered instances of flash flooding/flooding. Be alert starting tomorrow and don't hesitate to pass along any reports!
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