Low-End Severe Event Along With Flash Flooding Risk

2/15/2022

The week started out quiet, but that will quickly change as we work towards Thursday. Looking at integrated water transport, you can see the large quantity of warm and moist air being pulled from the Gulf of Mexico in the days to come. This will set up the opportunity for heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe storms.

Going a step further, the SPC has issued a Marginal risk for severe storms, with the biggest threat being damaging wind gusts. It is noteworthy to mention that Wednesday and Thursday will be breezy altogether, as strong southerly flow ushers in this warm and moist airmass. As a result, anticipate sustained winds between 10-20 mph both days and gusts up to 30-35 mph.

In addition to the low-end severe threat, flash flooding is a concern. The WPC has in place a Slight risk for the greater half of East Tennessee, while the remainder is under a Marginal. Given the drier conditions for the month this should aid some in limiting hydro issues early on, but consecutive heavy showers/storms could lead to flooding and flash flooding. Prepare now and use caution if you are in low-lying areas, common flood points, or near water bodies.

Timing will mainly come during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday. Something to watch for is how much sunshine/clearing we see. The more sunshine/clearing there is the more surface instability will grow. Think of this as energy used for the system. More sunshine will also lead to gustier winds during the day as well. This is the general break down of the system below, with fine tuning of the timing to come tomorrow. For now, prepare for breezy conditions (strong to damaging winds possible too), heavy rain, and a few thunderstorms for the day Thursday.

Following Thursday's event, cooler air will arrive for Friday. A 20+ degree swing can be expected with highs for the day to be in the mid 40s. Things begin to moderate through the weekend, with near 60 degrees returning by Sunday.