Friday is here and so are the warm temperatures! We are starting the day right now nearing 40 degrees but will warm to high's in the mid 60's. Where does this compare with the average? Knoxville averages a high of 51 this time of the year so we will likely turn out 15 or so degrees above that this afternoon. A look at an updated drought map for the state shows abnormally dry conditions have expanded to include all of Western Tennessee and parts of Middle Tennessee. With the minimal rainfall this weekend and into early next week, this is something we need to keep an eye on. For now, normal conditions lie across our neck of the woods.
As we progress through the day, a low to the west will draw closer. Because of this, anticipate increased cloud cover for the afternoon and overnight. This will be one of two systems that move through this weekend. The second will come late Sunday and early Monday bringing another round of scattered showers and cooler air for Monday. A chance for flurries can also be contributed to the second system for Monday morning.
The trends have been holding steady the past few days showing this system breaking up as it works east. A line of showers and moderate winds will push through Western TN Friday night and arrive to East Tennessee by the mid-morning to early afternoon hours. As seen below, the loss of forcing and moisture is present as it progresses eastward. With that said, I do expect some light showers for the majority of the area Saturday, but they should be quick moving. Gusty winds at times can't be ruled out either with a fair decent southwest flow. Winds Saturday will be between 10 and 15mph with gusts up to 20/25. Rainfall totals look to be between the 0.1 and 0.2 inch mark. The second system looks a tad more promising, arriving late Sunday and into early Monday. A cold front will hug the back edge of the moisture plume, providing the opportunity for a few flakes (especially for the higher elevations) late overnight Sunday. No accumulations are expected across the valley with minor totals possible for the Plateau and into southern Kentucky. Conditions begin to clear back out Monday afternoon before a third (weak) system is possible midweek.
For now, end the work week on a strong note as we'll have both pleasant sky conditions and temperatures this afternoon. A few showers will work through on and off Saturday and late Sunday so be sure to view our "radar" tab for where things are wet.
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