Happy first day of October! It is feeling a lot more like the first day of August though, as high's this afternoon will again be in the low to mid 90's. Looking below, this is the 500mb height level (~16,000-20,000ft) in the air. This graphic is showing where pressures are higher (associated with warmer temperatures) or lower (colder temperatures) all in comparison to the average sea-level pressure. As you can depict, VERY warm across much of the eastern half of the US due to strong ridging in the area. Luckily, we will have a trough develop and move through this weekend bringing the chance for some much needed showers next week.
The latest from the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) shows those warm temperatures sticking around into mid October (and likely into November) with above average temperatures. Don't let this graphic discourage you though, as average for this time of the year is the upper 70's and we will likely be in the low to mid 80's the next couple of weeks. We will stay warmer than average, but relative to how it has been, we will be "cooler" long term. The 8-14 day outlook suggests slightly above average precipitation as well, which is good news for our area. As I mentioned, we will likely see some rain showers next week before the graphic below suggests slight above average into mid-October.
Little to discuss with the model guidance. We have a low to our north and west, providing showers in the Ohio and Great lakes region (we will stay dry). This will continue sliding through allowing for a cold front to move through east TN and those cooler temperatures to follow into Friday and the weekend.
There is your Tuesday forecast, so have a wonderful day and remember your heat safety through Thursday as we will remain hot the next couple of days.
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