What Is In Store For The Spring Season

It has been a very wet year to start with record amounts of rainfall across east TN. Rainfall amounts for east TN have been a record amount of 15 inches + for the month of February (as measured & reported by NWS Morristown). Not only has east TN been very wet since the start of 2019, but the entire nation has received record rainfall. Just to give some statistics:

• Approximately 1 percent of the contiguous United States was classified to be in a severe to extreme drought at the end of February. 
• Approximately 30 percent of the contiguous U.S. fell in the severely to extremely wet categories. 
• Approximately 5 percent of the contiguous U.S. fell in the moderate to extreme drought categories at the end of February.

(Data Courtesy of NOAA)So putting this in perspective, less than 90% of the nation was in any drought. This statistic is important because in February of 2018, roughly 40 percent of the nation was in one of the drought index categories. A 30% difference! So what does all this extra rain mean for the Spring season of 2019? Well, time will tell. In a general sense, it will likely be hot and sticky for the later part of the season, and especially into summer. Right now the polar and tropical jet streams are still pretty active (typical for this time of the year). I expect the pattern of stronger storms and a day or two of rain to be followed by days of sun to continue. I do not think the moisture values at the ground level will change enough (for any dramatic change) just because of how much rain we have received and will continue to get over the next month or two. Once the tropical jet fully makes its way into the mid-latitudes (middle of the USA), and cold temperatures "are a thing of the past", we will see muggy late spring and summer days. On the bright side, this allows for farmers to produce more crops and it lessons the likelihood for drought to take part (not just for farmers but for lake/river heights, and the entire east TN area). As I am sure many remember, 2016 was a very dry year for the US and namely, east TN. This abundance of moisture will help in preventing fires, low lake values, and a decrease in crop production. As we head into the later part of spring and early summer, a better picture will be drawn on precipitation patterns, but as of now I expect it to die down some and be as it has been the past 2 weeks. Sunny and dry for a number of days before a day or two of showers move in. 

NOAA also agrees that the likelihood for drought seems very unlikely and all this moisture will stick around for awhile longer. So, prepare for a likely hot and muggy summer in east TN.