Ag Outlook 9/16/2021

Above average rainfall has been the trend much of this year. We saw flooding early in the year, a wet Spring, and a wet Summer. Looking at the precipitation ranks, precipitation has been above average for not only East Tennessee but much of the south as a whole. A "hot spot" of much above average rainfall is seen across Middle Tennessee due to the flooding seen in August. This has trended well for soybeans, wheat, and cotton which typically need the most water. 
*Will publish sometime early in the week (Sunday- Tuesday)*

Additionally, temperatures have been on the warmer side as well. Even with the cooler waves at times, namely last week, temperatures overall have averaged above the norm. This again has allowed for a much better growing year than in previous ones when conditions were not as ideal.

Previous Week Recap

We broke through both the heat and precipitation barrier last week, with cooler temperatures and less rainfall. Looking at stations throughout portions of the state, East Tennessee was slightly below average for temperatures and nearly half an inch for precipitation. Chattanooga was the one exception, where over an inch of rain fell. Overall, it was a great week to harvest hay and get out in the fields for any late season productions.

In addition to this past week, here's a look at rainfall the past 15 days. With the passing of  Henri, most areas boasted a few extra inches of rain. As seen below, the most rainfall accumulation was across the far southeast and in portions of the Valley. 

August Recap

The month of August was a bit warmer in regard to temperatures than what we normally see. Looking below, most of East Tennessee averaged 6-8 degrees above average for the month. We didn't get a much needed break until this past week, which should play a roll in the end of the month outlook for September.

What Is Ahead

Week Snippet (will add more detail in reality) This week will generally feature warm and muggy temperatures as remnants of Nicholas weaken and winds dominate from out of the south. With the passing of a cold front, temperatures will take a quick dip to the low 80s before returning to near 90 by Sunday. 

Looking below, the data favors near to slightly above average precipitation through this next week. As mentioned, daily rainfall is likely during the afternoon and early evening hours. The down side? It will be hit or miss. Because this is the late-season Summer pop-up convection, some areas could see rainfall while others do not. Showers will generally be quick rainers with a few storms producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lighting.

Lastly, temperatures will continue to ver warm. The Climate Prediction Center suggests a greater than 70% chance temperatures will average warmer than the norm. This means continue harvesting and take advantage of the conditions. The combination of normal rainfall and warm temperatures (mid to upper 80s) means you can pump out another good week of growing.  

*Will add much more but will be a general forecast for the week and potentially the month/week(s) ahead*

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