Looking ahead, another system looks to bring heavy rain across the Volunteer state. High pressure will be edged out by a strong low to our south, bringing moderate to heavy rain at times Saturday. A warm front will lift northward bringing warm temperatures (along with trailing high pressure) to follow late in the weekend and early next week. Highs are expected to average above average; quite the difference from what we feel now.

Looking at rainfall totals, some locations could see upwards of 2 inches from Friday night through Saturday evening. Flash flooding isn't a huge concern, given how dry we have been the past several days, but localized flooding can't be ruled out entirely. Expect rainfall to work out by Saturday evening with clearing in for Sunday and sunshine for early next week. ​

Another chilly night tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s. I expect frost advisories to go out with the afternoon package today from the NWS, so be on the look out for that. Protect those plants one more night, and we should be in the clear. Temperatures next week will average on the warm side with highs some days in the low to mid 80s.

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I hope you are bracing for a chilly day. As you can clearly make out below, the cold front has pushed through providing a temperature change of nearly 20 degrees from this time yesterday. As the day progresses, we won't warm up too much as highs top out around 50 degrees. We do gradually warm through the day, but this afternoon (especially) and Thursday will be on the chilly side. ​

In addition to the cold temperatures, a brisk north/northwest wind will make temperatures feel even colder. Gusts will be up to 25 mph during the afternoon. High pressure intrudes the eastward half of the US, allowing for clearing through Thursday and most of Friday. Again though, another system is expected to bring widespread shower activity Saturday before clearing once again returns late in the weekend and early next week. 

Long term, the CPC suggests another pattern shift; this time, a warm one. Closing out the month of April, temperatures should be on the warm (above average) side. The CPC also suggests precipitation to be above average to close out the month. ​

A FREEZE WARNING is in effect overnight tonight. Protect sensitive vegetation both tonight and tomorrow night as frost and freezing temperatures are likely. Overnight lows for most will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, with some sheltered locations dropping evening cooler. Check out more information below.

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Good Tuesday morning! A few clouds hang high in the skies above the Smokies, otherwise the remainder of East Tennessee is mostly sunny to begin the day. After what seems like many weeks, temperatures will make a return to average with highs topping out this afternoon in the low to mid 70s. Unfortunately, a big change comes Wednesday.

The biggest highlight ahead comes this time tomorrow. A strong cold front is set to arrive tomorrow morning bringing the chance for a few light showers and even a few flakes (yes I said flakes in mid to late April. Though winter precipitation isn't normal this time of the year, the temperatures to follow won't be either. Highs Wednesday afternoon are set to be in the upper 40's to low 50's for most with gusty winds at times (will make things feel even colder). In addition, overnight lows Wednesday into Thursday will be in the upper 20's to lower 30's, so frost advisories and freeze warnings are more than likely. Following the cold swing, temperatures will slowly rebound into the weekend before another system brings better rain chances Saturday (no cold with this one). 

Looking from the left first, this is a shot of high resolution short-term guidance suggesting that four letter word (snow) across parts of the Plateau and Eastern Kentucky. Though little to no accumulations are expected, some will likely see a few flakes to mixed precipitation early Wednesday morning. We'll clear out by the afternoon but stay  chilly. The image to the right (hard to see) depicts lows in the mid 30's across valley locations. Model guidance does a poor job with temperatures, so will clear skies and an abnormally cold air mass rolling through, I am fully expecting lows in the upper 20's and low 30's Wednesday night. ​

That will wrap it up for today! Enjoy the beautiful conditions and "warm" (but actually average) highs expected this afternoon. We'll continue to update you on the latest advisories and warnings (potentially) issued in the days ahead. Take the proper precautions now though to protect sensitive plants and vegetations as cold air is set to arrive early Wednesday morning. ​

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Noon-time temperatures stand in the upper 50s but will warm to highs around 70 degrees. Looking below, high pressure sits across Smokies but will continue to shift east for Tuesday. This will allow temperatures to warm back up with highs tomorrow expected to be in the mid 70s. Unfortunately, this won't last long, as a cold front quickly trails for midweek. 

As cold air funnels across the Upper Midwest today, its eastward trajectory will eventually cross the Tennessee Valley, bringing well below average temperatures. Looking at Wednesday morning, you can clearly make out where the front is located. The temperature gradient varies nearly 30 degrees from west to east. This will make things challenging for the Ag world, as frost and freezing temperatures are likely. Some locations, namely the Plateau, could even see a flurry or two Wednesday. Prepare now for protecting crops and sensitive vegetation both Wednesday night and Thursday night. 

There isn't a ton to highlight precipitation-wise ahead. As the cold front works through Wednesday, there will be isolated showers/sprinkles possible. Some of the higher elevations could even see a flurry or two before the precipitation departs north and east. Following, sunshine is set to return with temperatures gradually warming towards the end of the work week. 

The biggest highlight ahead remains to be the shift in cold air midweek. This will be a critical timeframe for the Ag sector as growing season is well underway. Cover and insulate tender plants and also think about livestock/pets who may be outdoors a bit more than in the winter. 

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Cloud cover has made a return this afternoon as a weak system to our south pushes eastward. This will lead to isolated/ scattered showers for Saturday. Highs will also be a bit cooler tomorrow with the added cloud cover and spotty rain, in the lower 60's. Luckily, temperatures tick-up a bit Sunday and Monday of next week. 

Breaking down the rain potential tomorrow, showers will work in from the west. As they do so, moisture will be light with rain amounts around a tenth of an inch for most. Overall, rain will be light and quick moving, leading to clearing overnight Saturday. Sunshine is set to return for Sunday but an isolated afternoon shower can't be ruled out. The same trend continues into the new work week with sunny to partly cloudy skies and an isolated shower each day. 

Something we'll throw out now of concern is the chance for frost and/or freezing temperatures. A cold pivot will take place across the central and eastern US, leading to the chance for damaging plants/crops. The latest model guidance (one of many) indicates temperatures (lows) in the low to mid 30's mid-week next week. Of course this is early, but we wanted to give you the lead time to take the proper precautions. Trends have pointed toward a cold swing Wednesday/Thursday of next week for the past couple of days, so be aware moving forward. We will keep you updated as always!

For the most part, this weekend will be on the drier side. Even with showers in the forecast tomorrow, they will be light (tenth of an inch) and move out by Saturday evening. Sunshine and warmer temps will be in for Sunday with improving conditions Monday. Have a  good weekend and don't forget to share your pictures by sending them to SecretCityWx@aol.com or tagging us on Twitter/Facebook. 

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Good morning! The latest satellite loop has clouds over much of the state but clearing will gradually take place through the day. Looking at satellite below, Western Tennessee is already beginning to clear out with daytime mixing likely to assist in decreasing cloud cover across our neck of the woods. Highs will be a bit cooler today with the passage of a cold front, in the mid 60s. 

Progressing ahead, dry air doesn't stay around for too long. Another feature will provide the chance for showers Saturday and early Sunday morning. This next round continues to look unimpressive with light scattered showers and totals up to 0.15". The biggest impact will be the cool air to follow as highs will likely drop through much of Saturday. By Sunday, we rebound a bit with clearing skies through the day. Trends hint toward  clearer and drier conditions much of next week.

Looking at Saturday, another cold front will work across the state. With highs likely to fall early in the day, we'll see temperatures struggling to reach 60 degrees. Cloud cover should continue to stick around Saturday night, helping buffer too cold of air. Frost could be a concern tonight for some of the deeper sheltered valleys, so use the proper precautions with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

The pattern ahead is more or less a drier one with temperatures trending below average. The exception will be Saturday as a weak system (bringing light showers) and cold front push across the region. Temperatures rebound a bit next week, but remain on the cooler side.

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The latest drought map for the state is back to normal. This is a change from the abnormally dry spots we saw for numerous weeks across Western and Middle Tennessee. The heavy rainfall and flooding we saw a few weeks ago helped bring things back to average. As the pattern shifts, the second half of April is expected to be more dry and thus, could see drier spots return.

Breaking down what you'll see today, an elongated band of precipitation will arrive. This NE to SW orientation will allow for showers to hold off until the afternoon before bringing upwards of half an inch to East Tennessee. Following, clearing will quickly take place as the front shifts eastward. High pressure will then build in for Thursday and Friday before another system brings the potential for rain Saturday and Sunday. This next round looks unimpressive, with shower chances dwindling as the feature works east. For now, anticipate the chance for some showers this weekend, but they look pretty minimal.

Generating an ensemble graphic, the average between the ensemble members is right around 0.3 inches of rainfall today. Some locations could see upwards of 0.5 to 0.6 as repeated showers work across the area, but this won't be a "washout" type of event. Rain into the weekend will likely be much less with some areas only picking up a few one-hundredths. 

Outside of the rain we see this afternoon, the biggest change will be the temperatures. Our average high this time of the year is the low 70's and highs will range from the upper 50's to low 60's tomorrow afternoon. We rebound a bit Friday as high pressure arrives, but still remain below average. 

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As our next system rounds in, moisture will pull in from the Gulf. There is a limited opportunity for showers bordering Kentucky this afternoon, while the remainder of us stay dry with increasing clouds. As we work overnight and into Wednesday, better rain chances arrive as the low works further east.

Looking at model guidance, showers work north of the region tonight. By the overnight hours and into Wednesday, showers will begin pouring in from the west. Though this is a fairly weak system, we can still see upwards of half an inch of rain. Some locations where repeated showers work through could see upwards of an inch. Either way, this will be a fairly quick hitting system with minimal impacts. Lightning and thunder may be possible, but instability looks pretty weak and no severe weather is expected. Progressing forward, clearer skies arrive Thursday and Friday before another dose of rainfall is in for the weekend.

Longer term, the later half of April is trending dry. Not only for the eastern half of the US but as a nation. We will continue to keep a close eye on how this may impact drought conditions moving forward, but for now we have had plenty of rainfall across the state. 

A round of showers is in for Wednesday as the low drifts a bit further north than previously forecast. Overall rainfall accumulations look pretty minimal, with "training" showers & few storms bringing higher-end totals near an inch. 

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The beginning of the new work week starts with lots of sunshine and above average temperatures. For the pattern, we sit idle between high pressure and low pressure to the north and west. A front will also stall out just to our south as a low develops across Texas and works east. This will allow for the chance to see a few isolated to scattered showers midweek, but rainfall amounts look very unimpressive. 

Looking at model guidance, dry air remains locked into place through today and much of tomorrow. We could see a few isolated showers arriving by Tuesday night, but the best chances arrive for Wednesday. This model in particular tends to veer toward higher rain chances, so we have dialed back those percentages for Wednesday. Following scattered rain chances midweek, a cool down is in store.

Looking at the latest CPC outlook for the 7-10 day range, well below average temperatures look to be the trend. As high pressure and northern flow arrive the second half of the week, highs will range in the mid 60's with overnight lows in the upper 30's and low 40's. Frost will be the biggest hazard with this as some of our deep valleys and higher terrain will be the most susceptible.  

We begin the new week beautiful but a pattern shift will allow for much cooler air by Thursday and Friday. Find out additional details below. Have a good Monday!

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It has been a pleasant start so far today with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the lower 50's. Satellite and local reports suggest some patchy fog near water-bodies, otherwise things are clear and dry across the region. For those who missed it, we did have rounds of severe weather graze the northern Plateau and work into Kentucky yesterday afternoon. Many funnel clouds and signs of tornadoes can be viewed on our social media. The area's hit the hardest includes Scott, Claiborne, and northern Campbell counties. Continue to send us reports if any come in!

Working ahead, a low will work back in from the south and west. This next round will pose similar severe threats (isolated) but bring a better chance for rainfall. Looking at model guidance below, isolated to scattered showers arrive late overnight tonight and through a good portion of the day Saturday. The timing for heavier showers and storms comes in the morning to early afternoon. Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and small hail will be the primary threats, but we can't rule out the chance for a few isolated severe cells. By Sunday, we clear back out with warming temperatures into Monday. Mostly sunny skies look to be in the forecast for much of early next week. 

In additional to the Marginal (to slight) severe risk tomorrow, we also have a portion of far southeastern Tennessee under a marginal risk for flash flooding. With showers expected to "train" along this area, rainfall will likely add up quickly leading to the chance of flash flooding. Use caution if you are along water bodies, low-lying areas, or flood prone locations. 

That will wrap it up for today...I hope everyone has a good weekend! As always, we'll provide updates via social media through Saturday and Sunday. Have a good one, stay dry, and enjoy the improving conditions Sunday and early next week. 

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