Another beautiful morning is in the making with temperatures currently in the mid 30's. Looking over the Tennessee river, clear skies are around early but a bit of cloud cover is on the way. Not to worry, we will stay dry with highs in the low to mid 50's.

Cloud cover will slide in this afternoon as a system to our west dives southward. Parts of Western to Central TN could see a few scattered showers today with our neck of the woods steering clear. By the weekend, high pressure works back overhead helping to keep things dry, sunny, and warming by early next week. Overall, the next several days remain seasonable with sunshine and high's in the 50's. 

Looking a bit more extended, this shot is of mid-week next week. High pressure will dominate, leading to above average temperatures for the southeastern 2/3's of the US. Looking at modeled high's, we'll see 60's to near 70 return next week. We'll also see a chance for showers return, but not for nearly a week from now. 

I wish everyone an excellent weekend and be on the look out for something special early next week! We will have all the information released here and on our social media handles. 

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If you are a fan of the outdoors, this would be an excellent weekend to get out and about. This view comes courtesy of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park overlooking the Newfound Gap area. Another picture perfect blue sky day is upon us with temperatures quite comfortable as well. 

Looking at forecasted highs by the NWS today, most locations should see the mid 60's. I pushed for high's a little warmer but it will depend on how quick the cold front from our north works in. Regardless, it will be another gorgeous one through the day and even through the weekend.

A system is expected to approach from the west this evening and into Friday but with little moisture to support rainfall, a few clouds are likely for the day. Temperatures will drop about 10 degrees with the passing of a cold front, but this still remains right on par to slightly above average for this time of the year. Mid-March looks to be very Spring-like with above average temperatures expected over the next 7 to 10 days. For reference, Spring officially begins on March 20th. 

Go out and enjoy this beautiful weather. With a bit of cooler (still on average) air this weekend, it may be a nice time to head up to the Smokies, walk the dog, or even break out the golf clubs. 

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Good Wednesday morning to you! Temperatures start cool as cloud cover cleared out overnight. As we work through the day, much needed sunshine and comfortable temperatures are on tap. High's today and Thursday will be above average in the low to mid 60's. The graphic below depicts the temperatures anomalies. As you can see, high's will average nearly 10 degrees above the norm this afternoon & Thursday. 

The weather pattern the remainder of the week should be a fairly quite one. High pressure will work through the southeast leaving sunshine and comfortable temperatures today and tomorrow. A cold front will work through Thursday knocking temperatures closer to average but we should stay rain free. Overall, this is the weekend to make some outdoor plans or get out for a walk through the neighborhood; conditions look great!

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We have started cool this morning thanks to the cold air that has advected in yesterday afternoon and overnight. Looking below, temperatures are 20 degrees + cooler than this time yesterday. This is all relative, of course, as high's Sunday topped out in the mid 70's and morning temperatures Monday were in the 50's. For this afternoon, anticipate high's on average, in the low to mid 50's. Breaks in the cloud cover will provide sunshine at times during the day. 

A system to our south has developed and will work east through the day today. Cloud cover should stay pretty locked in for a majority of the day but a few breaks will allow for sunshine at times. As we creep into the overnight hours, a light rain will be possible for mainly the southern half of the state. By the early morning hours Wednesday, showers should be out and cloud cover will be on its way too. Lots of sunshine will follow with high's the second half of the week near average in the mid to upper 50's.

We have made it through the heavy rains and can enjoy some much needed Spring-like weather the second half of the week and into the weekend. Get out and enjoy the fabulous conditions expected ahead!

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We start the new work week soaked with showers continuing to work through this morning. Fortunately, this is the last wave before a brief stent of drier air finds us this afternoon and into Tuesday. As a cold front pushes through this morning, temperatures will drop through the day. High temperatures are actually occurring now with temps this afternoon to be around 50 degrees. 

As rainfall continues to evacuate eastward, flooding continues to be a worry. Water run-off will continue through the day contributing to any flooding that is still going on, especially for bordering counties with Kentucky. In the days ahead, an unsettled pattern continues. A system developing off the panhandle of Texas will lift north and east, bringing rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

Looking at a play-by-play of what you could see, showers are expected to arrive while many are asleep Tuesday night and move out by the lunch time hours Wednesday. Following, much better weather is in store. Sunny skies and average temperatures will find us the later half of the week, something much needed region-wide given the plethora of rain Tennessee and Kentucky has received. 

Do your best to stay dry this morning....showers will continue to push east with drier air in store by this afternoon. We deal with another system midweek before sunny and comfortable temperatures find us late in the work week and into the weekend.

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Good afternoon and what a soggy one it has been so far. Our station (in Oak Ridge) has picked up just shy of half an inch so far today with much more in the forecast this weekend. The latest radar scan can be seen below. Scattered showers will continue on and off through the day and into tonight.

As waves of moisture work in this weekend, flash flooding is a big concern. Two major rounds of rain break down as follows:

Round 1: now through the first half of Saturday, moisture will bring moderate to heavy showers periodically. There will be breaks from the rain at times, but they likely won't last long. By tomorrow afternoon, we take a brief break from showers before round 2 arrives.
Round 2: This is the big flash flooding risk of concern. As with the rain we are currently seeing, a similar track is planned with our next low. Working in a northeast direction, a warm front will lift bringing heavy rainfall to East Tennessee late Saturday and through Sunday. This will be followed by tail-end moisture associated with the low's cold front into Monday. The combination and intensity of rain (at times) will likely lead to rising waters and flash flooding across the region. 

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed East Tennessee under a slight risk (10-20%) for Flash Flooding Sunday into Monday (more on our video below). This graphic below, also released by the WPC, indicates rainfall totals between the 3-5 inch mark with locally higher amounts nearing 6+ inches. This graphic is valid now through Monday night. 

With flooding an increasing concern (especially the later part of the weekend), take the proper precautions now. Have a way to receive alerts for the latest watches, warnings, road conditions, etc. Remember to never drive through flooded roadways as they can quickly carry away your vehicle. This is in addition to the fact that water depth, movement/speed, and road conditions (or lack of) underneath are all unknowns. 

Remain alert this weekend, especially if you are in a flood prone area, near water bodies, or in low-lying areas. We will continue to monitor the track and give you the latest updates as they come in. For reports email SecretCityWx@aol.com or tag us on our social media handles. Stay safe, stay smart, and do your best to stay dry. 

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Any rain we had this morning has shifted east and out of the area. Cloud cover has worked out as well but will quickly moving back in tonight. Several waves of rain will push through the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and early next week bringing the chance for heavy rains and flooding. The graphic below is of integrated water vapor transport. This is essentially where the water vapor (for rain) will be derived from and by how much. As you can see, dark shades of red indicate heavier water vapor (AKA heavier precipitation amounts) across Tennessee and Kentucky. The Gulf of Mexico will be a direct pipeline for the moisture we see ahead.

Trends continue to stay on par with a soaker through the weekend. A low will carry a warm front north providing moderate to heavy rainfall Saturday into Sunday. As the low works north and east, a trailing cold front will bring additional moisture Sunday into Monday. Rain will begin working out with scattered showers not out of the question through midweek. 

The Weather Prediction Center has rainfall totals through Monday night in the ballpark of 4-7 inches. This will be a significant amount of rainfall over a 4 day period, so anticipate water build up. The axes of heavy precipitation is still in question so continue checking back in for updates. As of now, 4-7 inches is possible for north central and northeastern Tennessee. The one positive is the abnormally dry conditions much of the state has been dealing with the past several weeks. This could help combat heavy rainfall early, but water build up will be likely in the end. Most locations should see upwards of 3 inches with much higher amounts likely depending on where the higher moisture plume ends up.

Continue to stay up to date here and on Twitter/Facebook as we'll provide a better idea on rainfall amounts, impact, and timing Thursday and Friday. Enjoy the day as high's remain above average (around 60) but will be cooler than what we saw Wednesday. 

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Good Wednesday morning to you! We have a mild start so far with very "warm" temperatures planned for this afternoon. Taking a look below, high's will range from the upper 60's to low 70's with some locations likely to reach the mid 70's. As a cold front works in the later part of the day, we could see breezy conditions in the afternoon. Cloud cover will be on the increase ahead of this weak system as well. 

As we progress ahead, there's lots to discuss. First, as mentioned above, a system (mainly to the north) will work through tonight bringing light rain to the region before departing early Thursday. We'll dry back out Thursday before another wave brings rain Friday. We discussed this briefly yesterday but this system has shifted further east in some models. Uncertainty still lies within the data but if this does shift a bit further east as the GFS suggests, less rainfall is in the forecast Friday to Saturday. If this turns out to stay its course from earlier guidance, this could be our primer to an extremely wet weekend -> more below......

It seems like every year (specifically in February) we deal with a flooding event. This year seems to be on par with the trend as yet another set-up looks favorable for heavy rainfall and flooding potential. Round 1: Like we suggested above, our system's track Friday will be a big key in rainfall for this weekend. For starters, a more westward favored track could bring us anywhere between 0.5 and 1.25 inches of rain. On the opposite side of the spectrum, scattered showers could bring a few tenths with upwards of a half inch. This doesn't seem like too much of a difference but much more is on the way.
Round 2: Following this batch Friday into Saturday, another wave derived from the southwest will work north and east Sunday through early next week. This could be the knock out blow as a warm front lifts north bringing moderate to heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. This will then be followed by showers ahead of a cold front Monday into parts of Tuesday. This will be highly dependent on the track of the system and where the axes of heavy moisture ends up. We are still many days out and changes are likely. For now, the graphic below gives you a rough idea on how much rainfall we could see over a 4 day period. Flooding is a big concern working into this weekend and early next week, so check in for updates in the days to come. 

Enjoy another Spring-like day today with temperatures a bit cooler tomorrow. Rain should be out by the morning Thursday with partly cloudy skies to fill in by the early afternoon. Working towards the weekend, tune back in as a flooding scenario is could be on our radar. We'll keep you well updated with the latest.  

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Knoxville typically averages high's (in late February) in the lower 50's and we are expected to top out in the mid 60's (potentially low 70's tomorrow). High pressure from the south has built in leaving us in the wake of some gorgeous Spring-like weather. This trend should continue into Wednesday as well before a brief chance for showers arrive overnight and into Thursday. 

Looking at forecasted temperatures for Wednesday, high's will range from the mid to upper 60's in the afternoon. Depending on the arrival time of our next "quick hitter" we could see high's in the lower 70's before the day is said and done. Regardless, go out and enjoy this beautiful weather while it is here.

Looking ahead, changes are again in the forecast. An uptick in unsettled weather is expected to find us to end the work week and push into the weekend. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this next system but rain is likely in the forecast. The original track (earlier this week) had this next system pushing a bit further north. A warm front will bring rainfall (heavy at times) before additional moisture ahead of a cold front. As we progress towards Friday, new data suggests a more eastward progression (limiting the heavier rain & flooding threat). We will continue to keep a close eye on the track and the impacts we could see later in the week. 

Enjoy this gorgeous afternoon as we'll have an even warmer one tomorrow. Rain finds us towards the end of the week but uncertainty on impacts still remain. Have a great one and enjoy the conditions!

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Good Monday afternoon to you! Rain worked out late this morning and the clearing out process has begun. Though there was no threat for winter weather last night/ this morning, very different conditions were felt at 5,000 feet. This gorgeous view comes courtesy of the Newfound Gap camera in the Smokies. Near 2 inches of snow has fallen as of noon. 

Looking ahead, we can enjoy some much needed sunshine and warm air. Temperatures will generally trend above average much of this week with most locations likely to see 60's Wednesday afternoon. Knoxville's average for this time of the year are the low 50's, so we'll take it compared to the 20's, 30's, and 40's we averaged just 7 days ago. I will note a chance for showers returning Thursday through the weekend as little disturbances work through the region. 

I mentioned Wednesday being our target day for warm air, and as you can see below, temperatures will range from the upper 50's to mid 60's. Some locations to our south could even flirt with 70 by mid-day Wednesday. We may not be entirely out of the woods yet for Winter but the pattern does look promising for a warmer next few weeks, at least for now. 

With our Almanac quickly on the way, we welcome you to be part of the addition with a sponsorship. More information can be found at SecretCityWeather.com/sponsors

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