Another pleasant day to end your work week with highs expected to be in the mid 80's. For this weekend we will remain pretty dry and with this, these dry days have started taking a toll. If you recall, on Monday we presented this same graphic showing only isolated areas (NE, Plateau, and Chattanooga) under abnormally dry conditions, but now, the entire state is under abnormally dry. This is an issue we need to be eyeing in the next several days as it will likely only get worst with little rainfall expected in the forecast.
Taking a look at the surface map right now, we will remain dry into the weekend with a high pressure system sitting on the east coast. Temperatures may feel a little cooler as dew points are expected to stay low. This will make temperatures feel closer to their true value versus the muggy and sticky conditions we have felt much of this month. As we get into the later half of the weekend, we will have a low slide to our north. With this will be a cold front that could provide the chance for some light showers Monday afternoon. We will also cool down a bit with high's in the lower 80's.
Looking at our model guidance as it rolls through, we do see by Monday afternoon a line of showers slide in, but with the dry air in place these will quickly break apart giving only isolated to scattered shower potential. As I said, though, very limited shower potential in the next week or so, which will likely contribute more to the overall drought we are seeing.
Thats all we have for your Friday but go out and enjoy a "cooler" and drier weekend. We would love for you to share your pictures with us if you are hiking, on the lake, viewing the sunsets etc. You can send them to us at SecretCityWx@aol.com or tag us on our social media @SecretCityWx (Facebook & Twitter) where we will give you full credit. Have a good weekend!
I hope everyone is enjoying a bit of cooler air for your Thursday. Taking a look below, we see where that cold front made an impact with much of the east coast nearly 8 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. For this afternoon, we will have high's in the low to mid 80's and partly cloudy skies.
Looking ahead here we will have a high pressure system (the one that brought us cooler air today) move south, providing warmer and more muggy temperatures by this weekend.
Little change in the model guidance with an isolated shower or two possible this afternoon. Those will stay in the higher elevations, associated with the thicker cloud cover and front that moved in. Overall though, we will continue to stay dry for the next several days with the greatest rain chance not coming until next week. Even with some hope on the horizon, rain chances look low within the next 5 days.
Thats all we have for your Thursday, but I hope everyone has a wonderful day.
Happy hump day and Wednesday to everyone. A little bit cooler out there today with highs in the upper 80's, near 90. Pleasant news in the forecast though, as cooler and drier temperatures will funnel in Thursday. Taking a look at the surface map below, you can see a high pressure system in the northeast. Due to the clockwise flow of high pressure systems, cooler and drier air from Canada will move in, allowing for a taste of Fall Thursday and Friday (annotated by the blue arrows).
Today will be another day of dry conditions across the valley. We could see an isolated shower or two develop in the higher elevations, but overall very limited rainfall expected. As we get into Thursday, that cooler and drier air will move in allowing for a mostly sunny afternoon.
Taking a look at the CPC (Climate Prediction Center's) 3 to 4 week outlook for precipitation, well below average precipitation expected. This isn't very good news, as we are in need of rain across east Tennessee. Looking at the latest data our best chance of rain in the next 7 days will come Tuesday (next week) as another front will move through allowing for limited chances of rain ahead of it. We will keep a close eye on that as we get into your weekend.
Don't forget to check out our daily video updates. We provide lots of extra content not seen on our written forecasts. Have a great rest of your Wednesday and prepare for some much needed cooler temperatures as we get into your Thursday.
Pretty warm start to your Tuesday with current temperatures (as of 11:45am) sitting in the upper 80's across much of the region. By this afternoon we will have high's in the lower 90's and feel like temps in the mid 90's. Something we should be paying attention to is our drought monitor. With drier air and cooler temperatures expected to move in, we need to be cautious for wildfires. Overall, the drought intensity across the state isn't too bad with abnormally dry conditions in the NE and Plateau. Near Bradley and Hamilton counties (Chattanooga) we are a bit more dry with moderate drought currently taking place. I will keep you up to date on these drought conditions the next couple of week, as limited rainfall is in the forecast.
I wanted to share this awesome GOES-16 EAST Satellite imagery with you from last night around 7:30pm. You can clearly make out the transition from day to night across the US, as well as hurricane Humberto off the east coast. As for the east half of the USA, there is limited cloud cover and that's due to the high pressure system that's been dominating the area.
As you can see, the high pressure system will stick around today. Working into Wednesday, though, it will begin to slide out allowing for cooler and drier air to move in for the later half of the work week. It'll feel a little closer to fall with those highs in the mid 80's and dry air. As we get back into your weekend, though, warmer temperatures and more humid air will begin to funnel back in.
Little activity expected this afternoon and into your Wednesday, as that high pressure system will do its job. Tomorrow afternoon a few of us in the higher elevations could see an isolated shower or two (20% chance), but overall I expect for most of us to stay dry and warm once again.
Thats it for your Tuesday forecast, but there is some cooler and drier air in the forecast. If you can push through today and tomorrow, anticipate better conditions to close out your work week.
Happy Monday to all! We had a pleasant start this morning but we are beginning to transition into a very warm afternoon. High's are expected to be in the mid 90's for most with near 100 degree values expected to our south. Even with these warm temperatures there is some good news associated, as dew points are low. This will make temperatures feel closer to their true value versus the high heat indices we have been feeling last week and into the weekend.
Looking at our surface map, we still have a dominating high pressure system over the southeast. This will continue keeping us warm and dry the next couple of days. To the north we have a cold front that will slide through mid week providing cooler temperatures and dry northern air. This will make conditions feel fall-like, but we will still have temps well above the average for this time of the year.
There is not to much to discuss with the latest model guidance. With dry air and ridging in place, no real shower activity is expected today and tomorrow. We will stay warm and dry for the first half of the work week.
A pretty summer-like pattern combined with fall like air will make for a dry but hot Monday and Tuesday before cooler air arrives later in the week. I'll have another full forecast tomorrow, so until then, have a great Monday and remember to watch our video update below.
Happy Friday the 13th to everyone! Another very warm day expected with highs in the mid 90's. Some slightly better news is in the forecast though, as a slow moving cold front is working its way through arriving tomorrow. This will provide us with some spotty showers the first half of the day. Keep in mind, not everyone will get wet and those who do, it will be very quick moving. Sunday, another high pressure system will move in bringing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures for the start of next week.
The latest HRRR model is suggesting much of the same today, with an isolated shower or two popping up in the higher elevations. For your Saturday, isolated to scattered showers possible into the early afternoon, but we will remain rather warm and muggy. For those of you heading to the smokies or further to the east, keep in mind this cold front is moving slow so your shower chances will hang around further into the afternoon than if you were in the valley. Nonetheless, drier and cooler air will work its way in around the 5 o'clock hour, giving us a dry and cooler night Saturday.
Pretty cool coincidence happening today as it is Friday the 13th and a full moon is expected overnight. Definitely go out and enjoy that tonight as we will have mostly clear skies and low's around 70 degrees.
Thats all we have to end your work week, but I hope everyone has a safe rest of their Friday and a great weekend.
Good afternoon to everyone, pretty warm out there as of 11:30 am sitting in the mid 80's for most. By this afternoon though, we will top out in the mid 90's and have heat indices around the 100 degree mark. Our current surface map shows that high pressure system continuing to stick around, but it will begin pushing eastward today as a cold front is expected to move through late tomorrow. We will not be cooling down much though, as high's are expected to remain in the lower 90's.
Our model guidance shows much of what we saw yesterday, isolated afternoon storms are possible. These will stay mostly in the higher elevations but one or two could roll through the valley late afternoon and early evening. Looking longer term, we can depict where that cold front is (linear line of rain ahead of the front). This will move through late tomorrow bringing some scattered showers to east TN Saturday. Do not be too excited for rainfall, though, as it will be quick moving and very scattered in nature. By Sunday we will have another high pressure begin building in, providing more sunshine and warm temperatures to start our work week next week.
There is a tropical disturbance (or a couple) out in the Atlantic but the one we will be eyeing (around the Caribbean) could provide us some much needed rainfall next week. The NHC gives this system a greater than 60% of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next 5 days. Depending on its path, we could see some showers by mid next week. Models are having trouble depicting its path and strength as it moves northward, so we will keep an eye on that in the coming days.
Thats all we have for you today, but remember your heat safety as we will continue to stay in the 90's through early next week. You can also check out our daily video updates below or on YouTube at Secret City Weather.
Good afternoon and happy Wednesday! As I am sure many of you are asking, when is Fall? Well, Autumn technnically begins September 23rd, but this summer time pattern will continue to stick around until at least the early part of October.
If you take a look below, these are the expected heat indices across the area this afternoon. It'll be another hot one with "feel-like" temperatures expected to be in the upper 90's for much of east TN.
The latest surface map shows why things have been so hot and sunny and that's due to a high pressure system that has stuck around for several days.
Slightly (and I emphasize slightly) better news is in the forecast though as we will have a cold front push through late Friday and into Saturday. Ahead of this front we could see some scattered showers and storms, allowing for some cooler temperatures and rainfall at times. Overall, high's will be knocked down a touch with lower 90's expected this weekend.
Not too expected in the near future as that high pressure system will do its job providing lots of heat and sunny skies. This afternoon and early evening we could see an isolated storm develop in the higher elevations, which could roll through the valley, but chances are low. For Thursday, much of the same as an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out, but these will stay mainly in the higher elevations.
Thats a wrap for today but continue checking back in with us here and social media (@SecretCityWX) for the latest regarding any shower development, as well as those temperatures. Have a great Wednesday!
Very warm start to our Tuesday with temperatures as of 11am this morning already in the upper 80's. For this afternoon we will have high's in the mid 90's range, so remember your heat safety (seen below). I also would like to remind you we have issued a Secret City Weather Heat Alert, this is basically an in-house alert advising you of the very hot temperatures expected. Temperatures 10+ degrees above the average are likely over the next 5 days, so definitely keep your heat safety in mind as heat related illnesses can strike quickly.
If we take an extended look of the expected temperatures for the next 8-14 days by the CPC (Climate Prediction Center), we will definitely continue this persistent summer pattern. Very warm temperatures, well above the average, will continue.
As you can see from the surface map below, a dominating high pressure system is continuing to work its way in providing those mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures. With this, we could see an isolated shower or two develop in the afternoon hours as moisture from the clockwise flow is being drawn in from the Gulf. Nothing impactful or widespread is expected, just your typical summer-time pop up storm. Overall, these will stay in the higher elevations due to orographic life (forcing air vertically) which could initiate a few of those isolated storms. As we get later into this week, also keep in mind "feel-like" temperatures will be in the triple digits range, so stay very hydrated and take the proper steps to prevent heat related illnesses.
Our latest model guidance depicts a few of those isolated storms to the south and plateau this afternoon. For the valley, expect to stay mostly sunny and hot with an isolated shower/storm or two Wednesday and through the remainder of the week. Like I said though, not much activity expected so those warm and sunny conditions will continue to stick around.
Thats all we have for you today, remember we have daily video updates available for your viewing. We would also love your feedback, so if you could shoot us an email, leave a comment, or send some critique via our feedback link (in the CONTACT page) that would be great! I hope everyone has a great rest of their Tuesday and remember to stay cool and hydrated.
Good afternoon to everyone! It has been a rather warm weekend and this trend will continue for much of this week. Satellite, right now, shows us being pretty clear. We had some patchy fog this morning but luckily this has lifted as we've gone into the later part of the morning.
Our current surface map shows why we will stay warm and muggy much of this week. You can see here a high pressure system that will build in Wednesday, and this will create increased temperatures and humidity through the later part of the week. Do to this increased moisture, it will create an environment for afternoon pop up storms to develop. Overall, these will be very isolated leaving around a 20% chance. Nonetheless, if you are caught in one of these cells you could see much cooler temperatures as well as some much needed rainfall.
The latest short term model guidance agrees as today we will stay mostly sunny and hot with high's in the lower 90's. Much of the same expected tomorrow, but as we get into Wednesday, we could see those isolated showers/thunderstorms develop. Overall, we will stay mostly dry and hot this week with our best chance of rain not arriving until late weekend and early next week.
I hope everyone has a good and safe Monday and remember your heat safety this week. Temperatures are expected to be nearly 10 degrees above the average for this time of the year.