I hope many of you are staying cool and dry this afternoon as heat indices are beginning to near the triple digit mark. Scattered storms are currently across much of east TN now, but these will begin thinning out as we get closer to sunset. Looking ahead, brace for that mid July/early August heat. High's are not too much above average, but relative humidity will make temperatures feel in the lower 100's this weekend. As seen below, this heat outbreak isn't localized to just east TN, with 2/3 of the nation feeling the heat this weekend too.
On the bright side, cooler temperatures are on their way. First, lets talk about rain potential to end the week and into the weekend. With remnant activity still sticking around from Barry, day time heating and precipitable water values still pretty high, afternoon showers are likely to pop up across the area. This will be the case Friday and Saturday. Sunday and Monday a new round of showers will arrive bringing locally heavy rainfall, storms, and strong winds.
Following this moderate system Monday, we will see much cooler temperatures follow. If you take a look at the run below, you can see the line of cooler temperatures migrate from the northwest to the southeast as the GIF continues through. This will allow us a break from the heat with high's next week expected to be in the low to mid 80's. The strong ridge that has been sitting over the area will begin breaking down and moving out.
NOAA is in full agreement as their latest graphic shows below average temperatures for much of the eastern United States next week. Enjoy your Friday and have a good weekend. Stay dry toward the later part of the weekend and into next week and remember to stay hydrated as "feel-like" temperatures will likely be in the lower 100's.
Happy July 15th and Monday to everyone! A little update on my self: I had surgery Wednesday afternoon on my jaw, but I am recovering and feeling better each day. Thank you for bearing with us here and on social media the past few days. I plan to get back on schedule today with everything.
So onto the weather....
It has been a big topic in the weather and news world since late last week, Barry. As of right now, "Barry" is predicted to take a more westwardly path than previous anticipated. I will explain the reasons why and how that will effect us more below, but because of this new "path", you can expect less precipitation than anticipated. Last week I was calling between 1-4 inches of rain through Thursday of this week, but with more westwardly movement, I am calling for rain totals up to an inch and a half. This is open for interpretation because our western counties will receive more rainfall than our far eastern counties. Nonetheless, up to 1.5 inches of total rainfall through Thursday is a good average for the eastern portion of the state. This weekend we will see residual rain bands move through the area associated with this trough. Being a full 6 days out, it is hard to pinpoint how much addition rainfall we could see this weekend, so up to half an inch is a safe bet for now.
As I briefly touched on above, the path of former hurricane Barry has moved more westward. The reason? Due to an upper atmospheric pattern currently residing over the United States. Taking a look at the current forecasting map (bottom right) you can see a "L" (representing a low) between two "H's" (representing high's). This low has become engulfed between these high pressure systems and has funneled more westwardly. Think of a high pressure system as a wall of traffic and the "low" as a car trying to drive in this traffic jam. In this case, the "space" is more westward in between the high's, which is what is taking place. The bottom left graphic (an older image) was shown to represent the full cycle of this low. I am sure many of you remember the shortwaves and afternoon popup storms we received early last week, well that was part of what morphed into hurricane Barry. Barry will eventually do a complete 360 degree turn by this week. The proposed track of the low can be seen above, but the entire cycle and path that it took over the course of a week and a half can be seen in that bottom left image.
Looking ahead to the likely path of this low, we see (based on this model) for it to move north and east of our area by the end of this week. The model below is showing the 850mb level winds. We see at the beginning of the gif a "circle" with bright red colors to the east of it (strong winds). As the gif continues, this begins to weaken, move north and east, and eventually converge with another low in Canada.
Moving forward into mid week (Wednesday) expect those rains chances to increase as the rain associated with this low grows closer. Barry, now known as a shortwave trough will propagate (move) north and east of Tennessee later this week and eventually out of the area by late this weekend. As I said, our highest day for precipitation will be Wednesday and the first half of the day Thursday before scattered showers finish our week. This weekend we could still see scattered showers from this propagating low, but they will be your "typical" afternoon scattered storms that we have been used to lately. Temperatures will be average, with the exception of tomorrow (Tuesday). As southern flow begins to dominate, temperatures will be cranked up into the low 90's and heat indices could feel closer to the mid/upper 90's by the afternoon.
Below is the 3-day outlook describing what I said above. Mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers/storms today and tomorrow with the brunt of rain coming Wednesday and Thursday. I hope everyone has a good week and don't forget the umbrellas mid week!
Good afternoon and happy Monday! It has been a quiet day weather-wise thus far, with only a round of spotty showers that moved through the Oak Ridge area earlier this afternoon and a few near the Dayton, TN area. Transitioning into this evening and the overnight hours, we will remain pretty quiet with only an isolated shower/storm possible in the higher elevations.
As we look ahead to the next few days we will continue this summer time pattern with warm highs, high humidity, and mostly sunny skies. As the NAM (below) emphasizes, we will remain mostly dry over the next few days with only an isolated shower or storm popping up in the afternoon hours. Most of these will form in the higher elevations, but a few could carry over to parts of the valley. All in all, it feels like day 50 of this weather and it won't be changing anytime soon.
Something cool to our south some may be interested in, is the development of some tropical weather. The Atlantic has been very quite so far this year with no tropical storms or hurricanes, so this system could be very interesting. This is especially so because it will likely impact the Gulf states: Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Florida later this week. A cyclone will push south due to ridging currently over the eastern United States and enter warm, moisture rich Gulf waters. As time gets closer forecasters will have a better idea on the strength, impacts, and path of this system. For now, many models show this system pushing more westward into parts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Here is your three day planner (below). We will remain mostly sunny and humid over the next couple of days. We could see a spotty shower or two make their its way into the valley, but most (if any) activity will stay in the Plateau and the Smokies. I hope everyone stays cool and has a good rest of the work week!
SIDE NOTE: I will be having surgery Wednesday afternoon, so please bare with me on social media and here. I will try to get out the usual Thursday (on the website here) post on time, but if I do not, know I will as soon as I can.
Happy Fourth of July to everyone! I am sure many of you can predict, but the weather remains much of the same today. Hot and humid with isolated storms possible in the afternoon hours. Taking a glance at the overall weather pattern below, we see a ridge (high pressure system) still in place over the southeast. This will begin to work its way eastward this afternoon, allowing for southern flow to return tomorrow and Saturday. As this ridge begins to weaken, shower potential will increase.
Taking a look at the latest HRRR model run, we see those isolated storms popping up this afternoon. Lately, the HRRR runs have been over predicting the formation of these storms across east TN. As day time heating is the main driver of these storms, it is very challenging for models to pick up on when and where they may form. Nonetheless, you can expect much of the same as yesterday. Isolated to scattered storms are likely to begin popping up early this afternoon and carry on to the early evening. For you firework lovers, the sun will be setting around the 9 o'clock hour this evening. Based on the latest data, I would not rule out a residual storm or two. As the night grows, the storms will begin to "fizzle out" due to cooling temperatures. Many of these storms will form in the Plateau and move eastward through the afternoon. As the sun is setting, expect most of these cell's to be in the higher elevations or to the southern portion of the state. This will allow for a nice night to enjoy many of the firework shows planned around the east Tennessee area.
Below is your day outlook across east TN. I released this graphic this morning for those following along on social media, but I will place it below as a reminder for the day. I know many cities around the area (Knoxville, Kingston, Oak Ridge, etc.) are planning a firework show, so go out and enjoy it! For most of the area by that time I expect it to be partly cloudy and dry. As I said, if there are any storms, they are likely to be to the south of the valley or to the east (in the higher elevations).
Looking ahead into Friday and the weekend, shower chances will increase slightly. As the ridge begins to break down and weak shortwaves move through, expect storms on and off through Friday afternoon, and the highest precipitable day on Saturday. Sunday and early next week we will return to what we have been dealing with recently (hot, humid, isolated afternoon storms).
Taking a look ahead, the Climate Prediction Center thinks we will remain average (both temperature wise and precipitation wise) through the next week or so. I tend to agree, as temperatures will likely stay in the upper 80's and low 90's for much of next week. I also believe the "summer-time" flow we have been dealing with will persist, allowing for our average rainfall across the region. As always thank you for viewing our content and staying up to date here. I hope everyone has a magnificent Independence Day and weekend.
I hope many of you have stayed cool and hydrated through the weekend, as it has been a warm one. Unfortunately, the heat will not be letting up anytime soon. First looking at the forecasting map produced by the NWS, we see a dominating high pressure system in the southeast. This has stuck around for several days resulting in the clear skies and warm temperatures we have had. As I said, this will continue most of the week, as high's are expected to stay in the low 90's through Independence Day. Along with the warm temperatures, expect high humidity. This will make afternoon high's feel closer to the triple digit mark today and mid to upper 90's Tuesday.
Afternoon pop up storms still remain something to be cautious of throughout the first part of the week. With a nice layer of moisture present and afternoon temperatures climbing into the 90's, pop up storms induced by topography are possible. Storms that do develop will generally stay outside of the valley in the higher elevations, but don't be alarmed if an isolated storm or two does pop up in the afternoon and early evening hours.
The latest NAM model run indicates much of the same cloud (or lack of) conditions over the next few days. As anticipated, the high pressure system will keep most of the region high and dry, meaning mostly sunny skies. During the overnight hours we could see clouds develop as nocturnal temperatures near the dew point indices. Fog is possible in the early morning hours, so be cautious on your way to work. Toward the end of the work week, we could see some increased shower potential due to rounds of embedded shortwaves. This will allow for slightly cooler temperatures (in the upper 80's) by Friday and the weekend, but I will have a better idea on precipitation chances and temperatures in the coming days. Until then, stay cool and hydrated and I hope everyone has a great week!
Below is your 3-day weather outlook across the region. As I said, hot with temperatures in the low 90's, feeling like the mid to upper 90's, and isolated pop up storms possible in the afternoon hours. For your full forecast, check out the "Weekly Forecast" tab at the top of our site.
Good afternoon, I hope everyone is staying cool as it will continue being warm. Taking a look below is the the 500mb height level analysis. Think of mb levels as pressure levels within the atmosphere. Instead of analyzing the atmosphere by height levels (feet, miles, km, etc.) we analyze the atmosphere at specific pressure levels (250mb, 500mb, 700mb, etc.) In this case you can see ridging (or a "hump") look positioned over the northeast. This is due to a high pressure system stationed over the mid southeast. As we work our way into Friday and the weekend, this high pressure system will move more eastward allowing for anticyclonic flow (clock-wise flow). As done in the diagram above, this flow will allow for the advection of moisture to move in. Along with this moisture are shortwaves (pockets of energy), which could trigger some afternoon pop-up thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will mainly be produced due to topographic features and could live long enough to impact areas of east TN. Overall, most of these afternoon pop ups will be held to the plateau and Smoky Mountains. The chance for pop up storms will hang around for the weekend and into early next week. Chances are low for you to see much rain, but the chance is there nevertheless. Stay up to date on where these showers may be by checking out our "radar" tab.
As I mentioned, the darker blue show areas are of higher moisture content. Much of the afternoon storm potential resides to our west, but these storms could live long enough to reach areas of east TN. Like I said, chances are low and will be isolated in spots over the next few days, but it is possible.
Below shows a modeled run of those pop up showers/storms through Sunday. As you can see, much of the shower potential will be in west TN or in the mountains (to our north in KY) or far eastern TN.
Besides the shower potential, brace for that summer time heat. The temperatures will stay in the upper 80's to low 90's for the next several days. Partly sunny skies will also be the main story, so this weekend may be a good lake/pool day. Humidity values could make some days feel pretty sticky, as well. I hope everyone has a good rest of their week and remember to stay cool! Also, you can always share your awesome pictures of the lake, mountains, clouds, sunset/sunrise, etc. anytime. Simply email them to us at: SecretCityWx@aol.com or tag us on Facebook or Twitter.
It has been a very active evening thus far with many severe thunderstorm warnings and even a tornado warning. As of now, there has not been a confirmed tornado from the NWS in Morristown. The tornado warning (at the time) was radar indicated. Taking a look below at a modeled reflectivity map, the brunt of the system still resides in the eastern most portion of TN (Newport, Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, etc.). Luckily, the storms have decreased in strength and are beginning to move out of the area entirely. Following that line of storms could be some isolated showers/storms but they will be few and far between. As we push into the overnight hours tonight, showers will move out and so will the dense cloud cover.
As seen from the latest NAM cloud cover run, Tuesday will be filled with broken cloud cover. We will see rounds of clouds and sunshine throughout the day. Isolated showers may occur in the western portion of TN and into parts of the Plateau, but generally, east TN will remain dry. Wednesday you can expect a bit of an improvement with mostly sunny skies expected. We will begin to generate some southern flow by Wednesday afternoon, helping in increase our temperatures into the upper 80's. We will, though, continue staying precipitation free. As we head into the second half of the week, afternoon pop up showers are in the forecast, but we will remain much quieter than we have the past several days. Go out and enjoy some much needed summertime sunshine and I hope everyone has a good rest of their week! More posts and updates for the website will be made Thursday.
Here is your graphical three-day weather outlook. Your full detailed forecast can be found in the "Weekly Forecast" tab at the top of this page.
Happy Friday to everyone! It is only fitting to have the sunshine return today, as it is the first day of Summer. Today is known as the Summer Solstice because it is the longest day (most daylight) of the year. Soak up the sun today as these pretty skies won't be hanging around long. Jumping into the pattern across the USA right now, we see a strong low sitting across the Plains. This will allow for the production of severe potential this afternoon in west TN, west KY, IL, and MO. By this evening we could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm roll through, but it is not likely.
So what will this low do to us? You called it, bring more showers and storms into the area. Saturday will be our best day for activity as we are likely to have storms move into east TN during the morning hours. This will be followed by mostly cloudy skies until the early afternoon hours where the next round of storms will move in. These will likely become more scattered by the mid afternoon hours and eventually move out by Saturday night. For Sunday, isolated storms are possible across the area, otherwise we will have mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures starting today will begin increasing as southern flow returns. Monday will likely be our warmest day (over the next 5 days) with high's around 90 degrees and humidity that could make conditions feel very sticky.
As I mentioned above, the severe potential this afternoon and into tonight will be held to our west. For us, we cannot rule out an isolated storm, but confidence on that is on the lower end of the spectrum. Severe potential remains possible this weekend as storms will arrive in waves throughout Saturday. The primary impacts will be damaging winds, but small hail and downpours are possible at times.
Check out your weekend forecast below. As I talked about, it will not be the best weekend for outdoor activities, so kick back and relax indoors. Stay weather aware and continue to check back in with us Via Twitter & Facebook for the latest. If you can hang in there a few more days, Wednesday is the "light at the end of the tunnel" with these storms. I hope everyone has a blessed first day of Summer and stays dry this weekend.
It has been an active pattern as of late due to rounds of energy known in the meteorology world as "shortwaves". These can be thought of as spokes of energy off of a larger long wave trough (associated with a low pressure system). These shortwaves can be caused for a number of reasons ranging from cold air to vorticity (spinning winds). In this case, shortwaves have moved into a warm and moist environment, perfect for thunderstorm production. Looking at satellite below I have annotated where a cold front is associated (blue vertical line). This cold front will force lots of energy into an area (as I described) rich for thunderstorm production. Fortunately for us, this system will be passing through during the overnight hours where day time heating won't play a part. It will be interesting to see the latest 18z HRRR model run and how it takes this system. I will tweet and update you the details from these runs later this evening via Twitter and Facebook. As for now, continue following along below for thoughts on tonight into tomorrow.
As I described, a cold front will help in the supply of energy ahead of this system. This, combined with a lower level jet (forcing warmth, moisture, and winds overnight) will help with the possibility of severe storm production. Overall, I believe the environment is conducive to see a few severe thunderstorm warnings, but the track of this system has the largest risk of severe weather to our north in south central Kentucky. Checking out below, you can see what I am referring to, as much of the heavier rains are in the plateau and to the north, in KY. As I mentioned, it'll be interesting to see how the models will handle new data as it comes in. The models are in agree-ance with the track, it is timing that is troubling to pinpoint. Moving forward from tonight into Thursday, we will begin to clear out a bit leaving only isolated storms Thursday night. Friday will likely be your best day for any outdoor activities as another pocket of energy will move through Saturday. As for high's over the next several days, we will be in the low 80's with temperatures increase into the mid to upper 80's by Friday and this weekend.
Below is the latest SPC outlook for severe potential across the USA. If you reference the previous map (posted on our social media pages late last night) the SPC did move the slight risk further east as expected. As for how much more they will move it is still in question, but my guess, not much if any. In my opinion this will likely stay mostly the same. For our forecast, severe weather is possible across east TN with likely isolated areas of severe thunderstorm warnings very late "tonight" and into Thursday morning and again in the afternoon. The heaviest portion of this system will arrive between the 7-9 o' clock hour, so use extreme caution for those apart of the morning commute. Impacts could include isolated areas of strong winds, hail up to a quarter in size, thunder, and downpours. Another round of strong to severe storms are also possible in the afternoon hours, but these will be more scattered. Remember to stay up to date with Secret City Weather on our social media sites or through our website here by viewing all of our tweets (on the right side of the home page). Have a good rest of your afternoon and stay "Weather Aware" tomorrow morning.
Happy Monday to everyone! I hope all have enjoyed the great weather we had the second half of last week and into this past weekend. Sadly, some changes in the weather pattern are taking place if you have not noticed already. Taking a look below at radar we see scattered storms throughout much of the east Tennessee area. These storms are capable of producing heavy winds, thunder, downpours, and small hail.
Further investigating the remainder of today through Wednesday afternoon, we see much of the same story. Due to a southern flow into our area, those temperatures and "sticky" conditions will stick around for today before we cool down slightly Tuesday and Wednesday. The warmth and humidity will act as fuel (we call this convection) and help in the production of these storms we are seeing pop up this afternoon. Please use caution if you do get caught in one of these cells. The severe potential is on the lower confidence level, but I would not be surprised to see a severe thunderstorm warning or two issued sometime this afternoon and evening. I will be the first to let you know if this does occur, where at, and what you can expect.
Below is the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather out look for today. We are under a Marginal risk with a slight risk to our friends to the north in Kentucky. Over the next few days (today through Wednesday) we will remain under a Marginal risk. If any changes occur I will let you know, but as of now, severe potential is held to a minimum.
As for the remainder of the work week, expect pop up storms and showers, similar to today, to be the main story. As described and shown above, we are under a marginal risk for severe weather today through Wednesday. This means thunderstorms are likely but the potential for tornadoes is very low. As I referred to, temperatures will decrease sightly as we work our way into Tuesday with high's in the low to mid 80's through Thursday. Friday looks to be our best day (work week wise) for any outdoor activities with only isolated pop up storms expected. I will let you know what you can better expect this weekend and early next week in the coming days. Until then, follow us on Twitter (@SecretCityWX) and Facebook (@SecretCityWX) for the latest updates throughout the day. This can be seen on the right-hand-side of our website, as well. Also, don't forget we have a 24/7 radar you can access in the "Radar" tab at the top of the page. If you are ever unsure of where the rain is, check it out so you don't get caught in a shower! I hope everyone has a good week, and try and stay dry out there.