Cloud cover is thinning across East Tennessee this afternoon with temperatures warming up into the mid 40's (high's in the low 50's). A recap of the states' current drought shows an ever expanding abnormal dry line. This now encompasses nearly 3/4 of the state as of yesterday. The good news is this weekend could help these conditions significantly improve.
As for today, sunshine will work back in and continue for most of the weekend. Saturday will be a bit cooler (in the mid 40's) but sunny skies should make it feel comfortable. By the end of the weekend, cloud cover increases across the region as our next system builds in. Showers will arrive towards the evening and overnight hours and throughout much of Monday. Earlier data suggested the bulk of rainfall across central and eastern TN but this now has shifted further north.
Looking at the expected rainfall Sunday night through Tuesday morning, the heaviest swath of rain is across central Kentucky. This doesn't mean we are out of the woods. Localized flash flooding will be possible along the Plateau and specially, the northern Plateau and counties bordering Kentucky. East Tennessee as a whole can anticipate upwards of 1-2 inches (decreasing as you move west to east).
Data continues to narrow in on rain to the north but we'll continue to monitor for changes. As of now, the biggest threat for any flash flooding will be the Plateau and northwestern counties bordering Kentucky. Have a great weekend and don't forget to check out our video forecast below.
Conditions this afternoon are somewhat gloomy with cloudy conditions and mild temperatures. This shot comes from I-40W in Knoxville. A few showers still hang out in the Smokies, otherwise we are dry across East Tennessee. Temperatures are currently in the lower 40's with high's likely topping out in the upper 40's.
A few isolated showers could be possible for the deep southern counties of Tennessee, otherwise we stay dry this evening and overnight. Working ahead, high pressure builds in for Friday clearing things out but keeping things near the norm (mid 40's). Overall, conditions continue to improve the next couple of days. Sunny skies stick around for Saturday before our next weather maker inches in late Sunday. Heavy showers are likely early next week giving way to flash flooding potential across the state.
Looking a little more in detail, temperatures are expected to be above the average early next week (indicated by the red). Along with abnormally warm temperatures, we will see abnormally high rainfall as well. We touch on this a bit more in the video forecast below, but guidance & ensemble data is suggestive of 2"+ of rainfall Sunday night through Tuesday. Some areas could see as high as 4 inches over this period so we are keeping a close eye on magnitude, duration, and location.
The next few days should be pleasant before heavy rain chances arrive late weekend and early next week. Changes are likely but flash flooding potential is on our radar. More details below.
Good afternoon! Sunny skies are out with temperatures currently in the low to mid 40's. Satellite shows the cloud cover associated with our next system just to our south and west. Increasing cloud cover will be seen late this afternoon and overnight.
As mentioned above, a low to the south will bring rainfall to the area late tonight and early into Thursday. Guidance suggests a nice bed of showers through the first half of the day before cloudy skies take over the later half. By Friday, clearing will begin to take place for the afternoon with sunshine returning Saturday. High's will also sit at to slightly above average, so things should be pleasant Friday afternoon and into the weekend.
With showers likely in the morning hours Thursday, use caution on your way to work and school. Most areas across East Tennessee should see upwards of a few tenths of an inch with enhanced rainfall, up to half an inch, for the windward side of the Plateau. Drier air will work in by the evening hours tomorrow as high pressure begins settling in Friday.
Enjoy the conditions today before a bit of rain and messy conditions arrive for the AM commute Thursday. Those with weekend plans should enjoy Saturday and much of Sunday before rain chances return Sunday night and Monday.
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A weak front will progress eastward through the day today bringing some light and isolated showers through the early afternoon timeframe. Cloud cover will continue through this time period as well before gradually clearing out this evening and overnight. High pressure will be in place for Wednesday with cooler temperatures (mid 40's).
Better rain chances arrive later in the work week as a system is expected to arrive from the south. As you can see below, much of the southern half of the state will see rainfall into Thursday and early Friday. Uncertainty still lies in how much rainfall the area will see so for now, we are in the 50-60% ballpark. Changes are likely in the days ahead. For Saturday, things clear back out with high's near average.
Early indications suggested a cold flip toward the end of this month but current data keeps the brunt of cold air west and to our north. With that said, we will see some cooler pass through toward the end of January and into early February. The balance between above average temperatures (a few days this week and ahead) and below average temperatures (also mixed in this week and ahead) keep temperatures (overall) average now through mid-February (according to the CPC). We continue to keep a close eye on the patterns going on worldwide and for any changes we could see across the southeast.
Satellite shows some breaks of sunshine and clearing for parts of Middle Tennessee. We'll likely see some better shots of sunshine toward the mid-afternoon hours, so take advantage if you can. We'll cool down a few degrees tomorrow but stay on track with norms this time of year.
Happy Friday to everyone! We are seeing showers work through mainly east of Knoxville with some clearing in from the west. This is all apart of a low currently located to our north near the Great Lakes region. With the cold front moving just behind the leading rain shield, temperatures will stay in the 30's for much of the day. Some clearing should also set in allowing for a bit of sunshine this afternoon.
As we work ahead, some changes are in store. Previous data and forecast's suggested the low to track a bit further north than it is now. With the change comes some slightly hightened snowfall chances. Wrap around moisture from the low should bring isolated to scattered snow showers through Saturday. High's will settle in the mid 30's for most Valley locations so most precipitation should be in the form of frozen matter. By Sunday, a few flurries to light showers will be possible before clearing begins overnight and into Martin Luther King Jr. Day. We look to warm back up and clear out by early next week.
The big question I'm sure many are asking is: How much snow can we expect? Well, not much. With enough moisture for a few snow showers we could see an event similar to early this week with a light dusting on grassy surfaces, trees, and sitting vehicles. I don't anticipate a huge disruption to the roadways and transportation but slick spots will be likely in the morning and late evening hours Saturday/Sunday. Other areas across East Tennessee (Plateau and Foothills) can anticipate 1-3" at best Saturday into Sunday with locally higher amounts possible.
If snow is in the forecast you can be sure to expect cold temperatures to accompany. A look at the NWS forecast for East Tennessee tomorrow shows high's struggling to find the upper 30's with cloud cover and wintry precipitation likely at times.
Be sure to stay warm and stay safe tonight and through the weekend. If higher moisture can manage to stick around into tomorrow, we could see more impressive totals. For now, the consensus across the data doesn't suggests this solution. We'll have updates as always through the day and into the weekend!
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We start cool again this morning with a freezing fog advisory through 10am. Take a little extra time on the road ways as you could encounter some slick spots on your commute. If you take a look below, temperatures will warm up quick this afternoon as high pressure meanders across the south. We'll see high's in the low to mid 50's (10+ degrees above average in some spots). Unfortunately, we cool right back down for the weekend as a system to the north swings through Friday.
Cloud cover will be on the increase today as a weak line of moisture pushes eastward. Higher elevated areas could see light snowfall/flurries into the morning hours Friday with the Valley locations likely seeing all rain. Following this initial line, temperatures will cool quickly through Friday and light snow showers/flurries will be possible late-morning and onward. Cloud cover sticks around Saturday with wrap-around moisture funneling in. With temperatures in the 30's, this will likely be in the form of snow at times on Saturday as well. Accumulations will be little to none, so road conditions shouldn't be an issue if you have weekend plans.
Long term trends continue to hint at a very cold trend. Long term guidance suggests high's as low as the 20's for late January and early February. This could also be a good opportunity for snowfall across East Tennessee...time will tell. For now, be sure to enjoy the warm temperatures before a cold front knocks things right back down Friday, Saturday, and early Sunday.
We will examine the latest drought map for the state tomorrow as new analysis will be published later today. I suspect the same to slightly worse conditions across Western Tennessee. Along with colder temperatures long term, the CPC suggests precipitation returning closer to average.
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Make sure to have those winter coats on before stepping out this morning. Currently temperatures read the mid 20's for much of the valley. Much of the region is also under a freezing fog advisory. This shot from I-40 East shows some of that fog and freezing conditions. If you can brave through the cold this morning, things will turn out rather pleasant this afternoon. As high pressure continues to work in, sunshine will hang around this afternoon leaving high's around 50.
Jumping into Thursday, this "warm" trend continues with high's in the low to mid 50's. For some areas this is 12+ degrees above average for this time of the year. The graphic below depicts the temperature anomalies.
For those with weekend plans into the holiday weekend, Friday will be a gloomy day with cloud cover, rain, and isolated snow chances. Looking at model guidance below, this system brings isolated showers during the day followed by flurries/light snow showers overnight and into Saturday morning. The biggest threat will be the temperatures. High's Saturday will struggle to near the 40 degree mark with most locations in the mid 30's. Gradual clearing is expected into Sunday with temperatures returning t the 40's as well.
Be careful and stay warm this morning. As the sun continues to rise, things will begin warming up and clearing out giving way to a sunny and mild (for this time of the year) afternoon. Have a good one and don't forget to check out our daily video forecast below.
Satellite and highway cam's are picking up on some patchy fog across the region this morning. Be careful and give yourself a little extra time on the way to work and school. If you take a look below, high pressure will begin to work in today from the west. Not only will this keep sunshine around (as we'll see today) but also warm temperatures above average. You can expect high's in the 50's tomorrow and Thursday before another cool down into the weekend.
A look into Wednesday show's the forecasted high's from the NWS in the upper 40's and low 50's across East Tennessee. This trend continues into Thursday as heights continue to rise. be sure to soak it all in before our next system knocks temperatures back down into the upper 30's to lower 40's on Saturday.
A look at that next system shows very limited moisture. The timing likely falls sometime late morning to early afternoon Friday in the form of rain. As temperatures fall into the upper 20's overnight, a few areas could see some snow flurries. All in all, this next system will be quick moving with little moisture. The biggest threat will be temperatures as we'll likely see a 10 degree temperatures change Friday to Saturday. A cold front will sweep through followed by drier air for Saturday and Sunday.
Conditions continue to improve through the day and ahead with warming temperatures and sunnier skies. Take advantage before a cool down returns Friday into the weekend. Have a good one and thanks, as always, for relying on us for your East Tennessee weather forecast.
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Conditions are peaceful but chilly this morning with temperatures hovering in the lower 30's. As we progress through the day, there unfortunately won't be much of a change. A system to our south brings the threat of isolated snow flurries/showers to parts of the Plateau this morning and a few light rain showers/sprinkles to the valley through the afternoon. Aside from this, anticipate things to be cloudy with high's in the low 40's.
Turning your focus to the latest drought map across the state, things have improved. If you recall, the past several weeks outlined the western half of Tennessee with abnormally dry conditions. As you can see below, there has been improvement with normal conditions returning to some areas. Hardin and Decatur counties still remain under a Moderate Drought (D1). With little rainfall in the forecast this week, I anticipate no improvements to this region.
As the latest data streams in today, a system to the south will bring the chance for isolated showers in the lower elevations and a few flurries to snow showers for the higher elevations. Overall, most populated areas should wake up today and Tuesday with little impacts. As we work through the week, high pressure will build in allowing for temperatures to increase midweek. This will also allow ample sunshine by Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. High's will be in the low to mid 40's Tuesday before increasing to the 50's by Thursday afternoon. Another system Friday brings the potential for isolated showers/snow before drying out and cooling off for the weekend. We'll keep you posted on the second system.
For now, stay warm and dry (at times). I would like to remind you as well that our East Tennessee Almanac still has available spots for this year's release. Check out SecretCityWeather.com/Sponsors for more details!
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I hope you are staying warm on this Friday. Temperatures across East Tennessee right now are in the mid to upper 30's with a few isolated showers to snow showers through parts of the foothills and Smokies. Looking at temperatures the past 24-hours, we've definitely cooled off a bit with the passage of a cold front and we'll continue to be chilly for Saturday.
As we push into the weekend, things clear out giving way to some sunshine for Saturday and Sunday. For early next week, another southern stream system will work into East Tennessee. Early indications show a very similar pattern to the one we had last night into this morning. As we get closer to time, we'll have a better idea on the precipitation outcomes and percentages. For now, a mix of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation will be likely Monday evening into Tuesday morning.
We didn't get much snow across the valley, as anticipated, but it is quite a different scene across the Smokies. Watch our daily video broadcast below for more. Have a good weekend and stay warm!
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