Good afternoon! A fairly mild afternoon is on tap with cloud cover gradually clearing. Low level clouds remain across the northern half of the Plateau but will vacate by this evening. The remainder of us will be sunny to partly sunny. A cold front is present just to our west, bringing much cooler air to the Central US and eventual Eastern US. Highs tomorrow are expected to top out in the mid to upper 30s under mostly sunny skies.

Working ahead, the weather will be fairly quiet. A quick moving wave will bring the opportunity for isolated to scattered rain showers Friday afternoon before transitioning to some snow flakes overnight. There continues to be large uncertainty within guidance, but all signs point to a very minor event. Following this Friday system, sunny skies return but so does cold air for the weekend.

Looking at highs Saturday afternoon, most will struggle to break the freezing mark. Even more so, elevated locations will likely top out in the 20s with overnight lows in the teens and 20s Friday night and Saturday night. We will gradually warm back up Sunday and into the new work week.

Temperatures will cool off Wednesday, but rebound Thursday. This will then be followed by another cold bout Friday and into the weekend. Have a good one and be sure to check back in for any updates for the late week system. 

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Good afternoon! After another chilly weekend, we start off pretty mild. Temperatures for the southern half of the state are much more mild than the northern half. Reason being? Cloud cover. Low level clouds are hanging around the northern tier of Tennessee. Satellite does show trends of this slowly eroding through the afternoon, until then, slightly cooler and a lot less sunshine.

This cloud cover is all associated with a disturbance across the Great Lakes. It will again increase overnight tonight, with remnant coverage into the day tomorrow. A fairly dry cold front will also slide through tomorrow, bringing much cooler air for Wednesday. Other than a few sprinkles tomorrow, most will stay dry. Looking at high temperatures Wednesday, it is going to be another chilly one! Highs for valley locations will range from the mid to upper 30s and low to mid 30s for the Plateau and foothills. Temperatures should rebound toward Thursday, with yet another opportunity for rain/snowfall Friday and the early weekend.

Touching more on this late week event, we are in good location for snow. Guidance has been all over the place with this system, so this is to say "who knows" for right now. We will continue to eye consistency between runs and other data, but for now, anticipate isolated rain to snow mix at a ~30% chance.

That will wrap it up for today, be sure to bundle up mid week as the cold front slides through the afternoon tomorrow. Another system could clip us late week, but the confidence and level of uncertainty remains high for now. Tune back in for a better idea as we work ahead.

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I hope you are saying warm this morning as most locations are ranging from the low to mid 20s. Unfortunately, we won't warm up too much today with highs topping out in the low to mid 30s. Progressing overnight, a very cold night is in store. Guidance is struggling to pick up on the clearing expected through this afternoon, and as a result, suggests lows in the upper teens and low 20s. With that said, our forecast incorporates the clearing and high pressure, making lows a bit closer to the mid teens ballpark. Either way, its going to be COLD to start the weekend off.

We are pretty much stuck between systems to the south and the north for the next couple of days. As such, precipitation will be fairly light over the next 7 days. Our next real system won't arrive until late Monday night and into the day Tuesday. Another mix of rain to snow will be possible, but details remain too little to give any meaningful predictions (snow-wise).

Looking longer term, our lean toward below average temperatures looks to remain locked in place. After a well above November and December, I guess it's only right we finish out Winter on the cooler side. This graphic comes courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center.

That will wrap it up for today....other than the cold temperatures to start the morning tomorrow, we'll see gradually warming temps and plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend. Enjoy and have a good one!

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Looking at the past 24 hours, a stout cold front has exited east. As you can see MUCH colder air is filling in with values between 15 and 30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. As colder air surges in today, highs will come early...this morning in fact. As such, we'll see low 30s to upper 20s during the evening commute tonight, with overnight lows in the teens to near 20 degrees. Trust me it'll only get colder for Friday too (more below).

With high pressure in place to our north and west, dry conditions can be expected over the next several days. This is a pro but also a con....the clockwise flow of the high is ushering in very cold Arctic air from the north, leading to the very cold temperatures we'll see today, tomorrow, and Saturday. Other than mixed sky conditions, things stay quiet until early to mid next week.

Looking over Friday temperatures, highs tomorrow will only top out in the upper 20s and low 30s. Most won't even break the freezing mark for the day. Depending on how quick skies clear through the day tomorrow, we could be facing a very cold overnight. How cold? The current forecast calls for mid teens, but if clearing persists, we could be closer to the upper single digits and low teens, so...... COLD. 

We'll gradually clear out and warm up into the weekend, with highs by Sunday in the low to mid 40s and Monday in the mid and upper 40s. Stay warm, use caution as slick spots from lingering surface moisture could cause issues this morning and again tomorrow.

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Good morning! A powerful cold front will take aim at the region tonight, bringing rain showers and a few snow flakes. Looking at the past 24 hours, warmer air has filled in across through the Lower Mississippi, Ohio Valley, and up to the Great Lakes. This is all ahead of an approaching cold front, looking to bring much cooler air the remainder of the work week.

As the front overrides moisture late tonight, this could allow just enough time for some to see a few flakes early into Thursday. Accumulation wise don't count on seeing anything pile up, but a few flurries during the morning commute can't be ruled out. The best opportunity for any snowfall will be to our north in Eastern Kentucky, the northern plateau, and the highest peaks of the Smokies. The remainder of us can anticipate flurries followed by cold temperatures through the early weekend.

Taking a look at probabilities, The chance for one inch of snow or grater remains across central-east Kentucky. A few of the bordering counties and portions of the northern plateau could see a dusting, but most will see little to no accumulations outside of these areas. Another rounds of flurries will be possible from a southern stream system on Friday, but guidance continues to downplay and suggest a drier solution with this system. For now anticipate flurries at best Thursday and Friday, with cold air (low 30s for highs) each day.

That will do it for today. Even with little snowfall expected, slick spots will be possible. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to low 30s, allowing for wet roads to freeze over. Use caution during the morning commute and account for some extra time.

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After an extended weekend (for some), we make a return to sunshine and gradually warming temperatures. Most locations saw a decent snow this past weekend, with valley locations generally between 0.5 and 3 inches. The better snowfall was seen across the high terrain of the Plateau as well as the Smokies. A transition to snowfall as cold air advected in even allowed for some light accumulations in the southern valley for the Chattanooga area as well. 

Moving forward, the heavy rains we have seen the past couple of weeks has allowed for the improvement of minor drought conditions seen across the state. There still remains some very limited abnormally dry spots in East Tennessee, but nothing our next rain maker can't handle.

As one system exits, our next one looks to arrive later tomorrow. A cold front out of the Midwest will develop and pull east. As it does so, showers will develop out ahead before overrunning colder air could provide a chance at a changeover to mixed precipitation overnight and into Thursday morning. The bulk of this event will be in the form of rain, with little to no snow accumulations expected for the central valley. The best opportunity for any accumulations will be the higher peaks of the Smokies tomorrow night. This will be a fairly quick mover, dumping upwards of an inch of rainfall tomorrow and early Thursday, with sunshine gradually returning for the end of the work week. 

Temperatures will be the warmest tomorrow, topping out near 50. The remainder of the week will see highs in the 30s, with most Friday lucky to break the freezing mark (32). Have a good one, and don't forget to follow us on Twitter/Facebook for the latest!

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As we grow closer to the event, data is converging a bit better. With that said, there still remains some uncertainty and that will impact the outcome of the event this weekend. I will note this: the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the high terrain across East Tennessee. This includes the Plateau, Foothills, Smokies, and Northern Great Valley (bordering KY).

Examining probabilities for 4 inches of snow or greater, a 40-70% chance is possible for locations under the watch. There also remains a 10-40% chance for the Central Valley (Kingston up to Morristown). **So you are saying there's a chance...?** Yes, but not a big one. It's not impossible to think 4+ inches is possible across portions of the valley, but this will be very dependent on exact track, timing, intensity, and temperatures. For now, check out the break down of what we are expecting area-wide (bottom of this post)

Though higher resolution data is starting to trickle in 2 days away, there remains some discrepancies in path and low development. This run depicts a more "middle ground" solution. The break down for this event will generally go as:

Tonight: cloud cover increases into Saturday morning as the system works in from the north and west
Saturday/Sunday: isolated to scattered rain showers during the morning to early afternoon, becoming more widespread in the evening. As temperatures fall (especially for elevated locations) a mix to snow will begin. This will continue into Sunday where a change to all snow will come Sunday afternoon and into the night (this will be the best timeframe for accumulating snow during the event). This system will exit early Monday, leaving flurries MLK Jr. Day and then gradually clearing skies and chilly (mid 30s) temperatures. 

With everything now broken down a bit, here is our forecasted accumulations map: Locally higher amounts will be possible and with some uncertainties remaining these could rapidly rise in amounts or fall a touch. Either way, continue to check back in for updates and prepare ahead of time for a winter event. We'll provide you with the latest through the weekend...be sure to follow us on Twitter & Facebook (@SecretCityWx)

Stay safe, stay warm, and limit travel if possible this weekend. Heavier bands of snowfall are expected at times, which will impact not only roadways but also visibilities. Slow down, take your time, and plan ahead with what may be needed if roadways are shut down or slow. Send us any reports you may have as well by tagging us on our social media or by emailing at SecretCityWx@aol.com

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Lots to discuss so I am gonna jump right into it. Winter weather systems are very challenging to forecast in these parts because one (looks like small) variation can actually have a large scale change in reality. Looking below, a sketch of the 3 big global models shows this uncertainty. A more northern track signifies a more rain to snow (on the back side) forecast. A more southern track would mean a better opportunity at snow throughout. Given the large uncertainty still associated, it's hard to provide numbers. Right now, guidance suggests anywhere from no snow to 8 inches of snow depending where you are at....

Diving a bit deeper, plumes are a great example of showing the range of possibilities. In this instance, data suggests snowfall ranges from zero to over 9 inches....these lines will look much closer together (far bottom left of the image) as data converges (better agrees) on a solution. This is all to generally say, lots of uncertainty remains. As higher resolution data comes in and guidances comes into better agreement, we'll have a better idea. Again one change in path, low intensity/development, etc can change a lot in the grand scheme of things.

Lastly, examining the probability forecast for ICE, there's a 10-20% chance to see 0.01" or greater. This doesn't seem like much but the current path favors the opportunity for some freezing rain (especially Saturday night). Be sure to continue to check in via Twitter/Facebook and here on the website for better details regarding this system. I anticipate a mix of all precipitation types, but narrowing that in on exact numbers remains too difficult to forecast with accuracy (as of this morning).

Here is an example of just one of many model runs depicting the rain to snow/mix. Given the mean path of all models, I anticipate rain to start us off during the day Saturday, transitioning to a mix/freezing rain (possible briefly). Overnight, valleys will see a mix of rain and snow, before transitioning back to rain during the day Sunday. This will be different for elevated locations (Plateau) and especially the Smokies. The Plateau will likely see a better opportunity for snow Saturday night as these locations will be much closer to freezing (32) at the surface. The Smokies overall are expected to see the best snowfall. These will be on the highest locations  (3000 ft+). Check in with us tomorrow for better details on precipitation types, snowfall numbers, and who might see what and where.

For you winter weather lovers, please don't get caught up in model runs you may see swing around social media. These are NOT forecasts! This is guidance and needs to be taken with a BIG grain of salt. We'll continue to provide better details as they emerge, but for now, anticipate minimal to no accumulations and a more rain with some snow mixing in forecast.

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Good afternoon! It has been a beautiful day so far with current temperatures (11:30am) in the upper 30s and low 40s. We will continue to warm, reaching highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Mostly sunny skies can be seen from the TDOT webcam, with only a few high thin clouds working through.

Working ahead, an isolated shower to sprinkle will be possible tomorrow afternoon/evening, but most should stay on the dry side. Further out, all eyes are on the system this weekend. A Clipper System (as we like to call them) will cross the area, bringing the opportunity for all precipitation types. There remains lots of uncertainty with track/position, which will dictate what we see. For now, anticipate a rain to snow mix with minimal accumulations. For snow lovers: root for a more southern track. 

Diving a tad deeper, the WPC suggests a 10-30% chance for accumulating snow across the area. The best opportunity will be across the Appalachians on the North Carolina side. We will keep a close eye on this system, but expect many changes and better details ahead.

That will do it for today...enjoy another gorgeous and seasonable afternoon before increasing cloud cover arrives tonight and into Thursday. 

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Good afternoon and what a chilly start it's been this morning! Looking over the Smokies via the Newfound Gap area, current temps here are in the mid teens (noon). You can also see the remaining snow left from our latest winter storm system. No winter weather, or even real impactful weather, expected over the next several days. For today, sunny and chilly. Highs to warm up into the low 40s across the Great Valley.

Examining the latest drought map, we still have spots that sit at abnormally dry. These particularly encompass the far western portions of the state, parts of the Plateau, and the far northeastern tip of the state. Given the moderate to heavy rainfall yesterday, (1-2"), I anticipate these to shrink with the latest release later this week.

Looking longer term, a cold swing is expected. The CPC suggests colder than normal temperatures, at least a better opportunity for them, the second half of the month. After a very warm November and December, we'll take a more true winter to balance the scales.

That will wrap it up for today. If you'd like to be a part of this year's almanac (either content, picture, or sponsorship slots), visit: 

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