A beautiful day is ahead as we close out the work week. High's are expected to top out right around the average (upper 80's) under partly cloudy skies. A stray shower for parts of the Smokies will be possible, otherwise the rest of us will stay dry and warm.
With a high in place to the north, shower activity looks to be out of the question for most of the weekend. The main threat will be temperatures, as they will return to the low to mid 90's. By Monday and Tuesday of next week, shower activity begins to creep back in with higher moisture values across the region.
An update from Colorado State University shows an active second half to hurricane season. Unfortunately, now through Mid-October is the most active time of the year for the Atlantic. The forecast has been upped from 19 named storms to now 24 (the highest forecast ever). In addition, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (cat 3 or higher) are predicted in the weeks/months ahead. As you can see, nearly every prediction is double the average. It's easy to conclude the second half of hurricane season looks to be an active one after already starting the year with a record number of systems.
As we work into the weekend, keep your heat safety in mind. It will definitely be a good weekend to cool off at the lake or pool as high's will be in the 90's. Stay safe, stay cool and have a good weekend!
A batch of heavy showers and storms has developed in the Plateau earlier this morning and continues to work east. You can see the latest scan under the "Radar" tab above. Looking ahead, drier air is in the forecast. As the system to the south moves out, a high will continue building into the region. Lots of sunshine is in store for Friday and the weekend so pool and lake plans will be a go.
Shower and storm activity will remain possible through this afternoon before clearing up overnight tonight. Working in the days ahead, there is little to discuss. As some drier air funnels in, the main threat will be the heat. High's are expected to return to the low/mid 90's through the weekend with heat indices nearing the triple digits for some. Stray afternoon showers will be limited in the days ahead, so cooling off at the pool or lake may be a good idea.
The latest update on drought conditions in TN remains the same as last week. Abnormally dry conditions still dominate much of east TN and far west TN. With limited rainfall expected the next couple of days, we'll look to see if this gets worse. Especially as we enter the driest months of the year, a close eye will be kept on the conditions.
That will do it for today. Be weary of heavy showers and storms this afternoon. Localized flooding is possible along with gusty winds and frequent lightning. Drier days are ahead but so are warmer ones.
We've had lots of sunshine to begin the day and the latest UV index forecast shows that. Values in the 8 and 9 range mean keep the sunscreen handy. We will continue seeing the sunshine to end the work week and through the weekend.
A high pressure system covering much of the eastern US is the reasoning behind the sunnier conditions. We will also see temperatures build each day with high's returning to the low/mid 90's by the weekends end.
Though the main threat will once again be the hot temperatures, afternoon pop up showers and storms remain possible. As is the usual trend this time of the year, the majority of activity will be in the higher elevations. Longer lasting cells will move through the central valley at times during the afternoon, otherwise the remainder of us will stay dry in the days ahead. Keep your umbrellas handy just in case.
That will wrap it up for today! If Secret City Weather can help you, let us know by visiting the "Services" tab above.
Spotty showers and storms have developed in parts of the Plateau and northern valley. The remainder of us will stay dry today under partly cloudy skies and high's in the low to mid 80's. That's 5 to 8 degrees below the average for this time of the year so enjoy these temps while they last.
I will emphasize "enjoy the temps while they last" because a high pressure system is building in. This will funnel in warm and muggy southern air in the days ahead leaving high's back in the 90's by Friday and the weekend. The good news, for now, is the cold front that has over through. More opportunity for sunshine (as we have seen so far) and the cooler temperatures make things feel rather pleasant today. Similar conditions will be present through the remainder of the work week just with increasing temperatures each day.
Changes are ahead as a warming trend finds us mid-August. As we will come to see later this week, this brief period of below average temperatures won't last long. The latest CPC forecast shows warm temperatures to return for much of the eastern half of the US. The CPC also suggests above average precipitation through mid-August. This is good news as August and September are our driest months of the year. With abnormally dry conditions present around the state any additional rainfall will be welcomed in the weeks ahead.
Enjoy the temps today before hot and muggy conditions return by weeks end. A few afternoon pop up showers and storms will continue today as well so look out for those on your way home from work and school.
A line of showers impacting counties just east of the Oak Ridge area have begun to break up and move out. As we progress into the afternoon, a few more scattered showers will be possible but things will be a bit more sunny. A front is working through now which will help in cooling things down overnight and leaving high's, Tuesday, at to slightly below average.
Average high's for this time of the year are in the upper 80's, near 90 in Knoxville. Further south, Chattanooga averages the lower 90's this time of the year so tomorrow's forecast will be somewhat comfortable. As a bit of drier air works in today, we'll see high's Tuesday in the mid to upper 80's with dew points in the low to mid 60's.
Afternoon showers remain possible through the work week but will be limited across the valley. The usual summer trend will return with afternoon showers developing and moving through before dissipating by days end. Wednesday will likely be our driest day as Isaias will funnel in some drier air from the west. Working through the week, temperatures will be something to watch as high's Friday will return to the lower 90's.
Afternoon pop up showers/storms and increasing temps through the week will be the main story in the days ahead. Check in for updates as always through social media and I wish everyone a good work week.
Good afternoon! We have stayed quiet so far today with the main threat being the temperatures. Heat indices across the region are sitting in the low to mid 90's as of noon. As we progress further into the day, showers and storms will begin firing off.
A Marginal risk is in place again today as some storms could be strong to severe. With patches of sunshine beaming in early this afternoon, we could see the likelihood for stronger storms later today. Short term high resolution model guidance paints a similar story if things stay peaceful and mixed with a bit of sunshine.
As seen below, showers begin developing early this afternoon and move east. These will be scattered in nature so not everyone will be impacted. Some will likely be strong at times, especially given the pockets of sunshine we have seen today These could bring gusty winds, heavy downpours, and lighting. We'll update you throughout the day. As of now, a strong batch is likely to develop and work into the northern valley with a second batch to impact the central and southern valley later today.
An update in the tropics shows Isaias now a category 1 hurricane with the potential to strengthen to a category 2 in the days ahead. The path remains similar to yesterday: riding the eastern Florida coast and potentially making landfall in the Carolinas next week. In addition to Isaias, two more unorganized systems have developed west of Africa. We will keep a close eye on these as well for any development in the coming days.
With lots of activity and the potential in the tropics, check in for updates through the weekend via social media. Be sure to tune in this afternoon as some storms could be strong to severe at times. Saturday will contain scattered showers in the afternoon with partly cloudy skies returning Sunday and next week. Afternoon pop up showers still remain, but they will be scattered and contained to mainly the higher elevations.
Tropical storm Isaias (pronounced ee-sah-ee-ahs) how now formed in the Caribbean and is currently working through Hispaniola. The projected path has changed a bit from yesterday but is expected to still impact Florida by the weekend. Landfall could be made on the eastern seaboard of Florida and again in North Carolina by early next week. Time will tell but for now, let family and friends in the area know of the impacts and to plan accordingly.
Here at home, drought conditions remain similar to those of last week. Abnormally dry conditions stick around for east TN and far western TN. The good news is rainfall is expected this afternoon, Friday, and parts of Saturday which should help combat the drier conditions we are seeing.
Rainfall totals vary model to model, but it is agreed the bulk of rainfall will stay north and west of our area. With that said, anywhere from half an inch to an inch and a half can be expected now through Saturday evening. Strong to severe storms are possible today and again Friday bringing localized heavy rainfall to some counties (bringing slightly higher totals for some).
Showers and storms are already developing in the Plateau and moving east late this morning. Expect these to become more widespread by the afternoon bringing with it heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. A Marginal risk for severe weather is in place today meaning severe potential is low but not out of the question. Much of the same can be expected for Friday and parts of Saturday before sunnier skies and drier air works in Sunday and next week.
As showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon, check in for updates on impacts and location. We'll also keep a close eye on the Caribbean today and the days ahead. Have a good Thursday and stay dry!
Happy Hump Day! A front to the north continues to pester us bringing widespread activity in the days ahead. For today, showers and storms will develop in the higher elevations and work east this afternoon. We are already seeing some development just east of Crossville and west of Dayton.
As activity increases for Thursday, a Marginal risk has been placed over the area (for tomorrow). Showers will begin firing off in the late morning to afternoon with a chance for heavier showers/storms later in the day. Severe potential is low but gusty winds, small hail, heavy downpours, and lightning are all something to be cautious of.
A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon and into the evening hours before widespread activity arrives Thursday. Rainfall will stick around for Friday as well before showers turn more scattered Saturday. Sunday will likely be our "best" day of the weekend with a mix of sunshine, cloud cover, and afternoon showers. By next week, a bit of tropical moisture could be possible in our neck of the woods. Tropical cyclone (likely) nine is expected to work west in the days ahead before turning north around Cuba.
More details on the expected path and timing can be found in the video below. Let family and friends in the Gulf area know what could be coming their way. For now, stay cool this afternoon and keep the umbrellas handy for tomorrow!
As we touched on last week, a cooling trend in temps is expected early next month. In fact, we will see a glimpse of that Thursday and Friday with high's topping out in the mid 80's. Muggy conditions will make it feel a bit warmer but we'll take something not in the 90's.
The front to the west and north continues to slowly work in providing some of the showers we've seen this morning and will again see this afternoon. Showers will pop up tomorrow after lunch before widespread activity arrives Thursday and Friday.
Just like we saw yesterday, today and Wednesday will contain scattered afternoon showers and storms. Severe potential remains low but heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning are all possible through the next 36 hours. By Thursday and Friday, the front will arrive to the area bringing with it widespread rainfall and the chance for embedded thunderstorms. With drought conditions increasing throughout the state, this will definitely help combat the issue. Rainfall totals for east TN, now through Friday, will be anywhere from 0.5" to 1.5". Localized larger totals are possible within heavier cells.
If you have plans for a beach trip this weekend or have family in Florida, let them know some of the potential impacts coming their way. Invest nine will continue gaining strength in the days ahead and will likely impact the US by the weekend. More details can be found on the daily forecast below and by checking out the National Hurricane Center's website.
I hope you enjoyed your weekend! As we kick off the new work week, keep your umbrellas handy. A front to the west will slowly work eastward the next couple of days. This will allow for moisture to funnel into the area the next several days and provide afternoon showers and thunderstorms off of the Plateau and higher elevations.
As you can see below, showers and a few thunderstorms are more than likely the next couple of days. These will begin firing off early in the afternoon and work into the valley by days end. With little forcing overnight, showers and storms will fade out, turning into broken cloud cover. This will be the general pattern through midweek before the front brings widespread shower and storm activity. The severe parameters will be held at bay the next couple of days, but we can't rule out heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds at times. Cooler temperatures are also expected to follow in the days ahead with high's by Thursday in the mid 80's.
Looking again at the Atlantic, another system is expected to develop in the next 24 to 48 hours. Questions still remain if this will impact the US but for now, this is expected to continue working westward. We will continue to monitor and keep you up to date on the latest.
Keep your heat safety in mind as well as those umbrellas handy and I wish everyone a good start to the new work week!
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