Showers and rumbles of thunder are working through east TN now and will continue throughout this afternoon. With a nice bed of atmospheric parameters in place, we will likely see strong to severe storms work in this evening and overnight. As seen below, these will mainly be limited to the southern half of the valley. The biggest threat will be damaging winds but hail and isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
The low pressure system will continue to work through today as a front slides in. Along the warm front, data suggests strong convection will develop this evening. This will provide the opportunity for stronger to severe storms to slide through east TN before we begin clearing out late overnight.
Looking more in depth, the HRRR (a model) has done a good job with picking up areas of heavier showers late this morning. As we get into the afternoon, showers will become more scattered before the low draws closer. If you look toward the end of the animation, the model suggests heavier storms working through the southern valley (dark orange, reds, and purples). The timing of these heavier showers/storms falls between 9 PM and midnight.
Be sure to have a way to receive watches and warnings this evening. We are getting our first taste of the Spring "Severe Season" with more likely ahead (possibly this weekend). As always, check in with us on Twitter & Facebook as we'll have the latest! Stay safe and stay weather aware tonight.
We had a nice round of "sleeping weather" overnight and into early this morning but showers are fading out this afternoon. As this system works east, mostly cloudy skies will stick around this afternoon and overnight. High's will remain cool today with a warming trend set for this week.
As a low pressure system develops in north Texas today, it will begin to work eastward. This will allow the opportunity to see stronger showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. As seen below, a slight risk (2/5) is labeled for Middle and Western TN tomorrow. Depending on the amount of instability (vertical motion) we see will vary the chances for storm activity. Given the latest models, scattered showers will start the day and continue into the early afternoon. If cloud cover is broken at times (providing some sunshine in spots), we could see a better chance for stronger storms. The main threat will be damaging winds but isolated areas of spin-up and hail are possible. We'll continue to monitor the latest and keep you up to date.
Scattered showers will start the day off before heavier showers and storms move in by the later half of the day. These will move east overnight tomorrow, allowing for clearing to take place Wednesday afternoon. This means SUNSHINE is finally back in the forecast for late Wednesday and through the day Thursday.
As heavier showers and storms move through the day tomorrow, we'll see a fair amount of rain. Flash flooding potential isn't the greatest threat but it is possible for those in low lying areas and locations prone to rising waters. Expect an additional 1.5"-2" tomorrow to the 1.25" we picked up through today.
Though severe potential remains on the lower confidence level, many severe parameters are in place. We'll monitor the instability potential as we work into Tuesday. This will give us a real idea on severe possibilities for tomorrow afternoon. Until then, stay dry and stay up to date for the latest!
Happy first FULL day of Spring to you! Spring officially started last night at 11:50 pm. As we get into today's weather, the SPC has Marginal risks to the north and south this afternoon. This means we could experience some gusty winds and a few thunderstorms at times but the severe potential is very low. In a larger sense, this will be good sleeping weather for most as we push into the weekend.
In addition to the Storm Prediction Center's outlook, this is the latest excessive rainfall outlook for today. With heavier showers expected this evening, flood prone areas could see a flash flooding risk. The odds remain low but do be weary if you are in low lying, flood prone areas.
As showers move through this afternoon and evening, a trailing cold front will provide cooler and drier air Saturday. "Cool" is a relative term to the above average temperatures we have been dealing with the past several days. Expect high's near average in the lower 60's this weekend.
Looking ahead, model guidance shows a brief break for the central valley this afternoon before additional showers and rumbles of thunder return tonight. As a cold front slides through overnight, drier and cooler air will follow. This will allow for a dry start to the weekend with a chance for rounds of sunshine in the afternoon hours. Cloud cover and shower chances return Sunday afternoon and into early next week.
That'll wrap it up for today but enjoy seasonable temperatures and the chance for some sunshine tomorrow afternoon.
Satellite is picking up on cloud cover thinning out across east TN this afternoon. Try to go out and enjoy those warm temperatures and spotty sunshine before rain returns tomorrow. Looking below, our next weather maker lies just to the west.
The day 1 SPC outlook (bottom left) shows two enhanced notches (category 3/5). If you have friends or family in these areas, let them know the risks and impacts possible this afternoon and evening (anything is on the table). Looking into tomorrow, (bottom right) the SPC has any severe activity to the north and east. As this system works north and east overnight, any instability will quickly break down as lines of showers work in tomorrow morning. A few rumbles of thunder and gusty winds are possible at times, but any severe weather will stay north.
Looking into how this could play out, we'll see showers work in tomorrow morning and continue on and off through the day. As we get into Saturday, a cold front will sweep through drying things out and cooling things off. This will knock high's back down to near average temperatures (upper 50's to low 60's). A few breaks in the cloud cover are possible Saturday afternoon (similar to today) before rain returns Sunday and Monday.
As of this morning, we have picked up just shy of 2" for the week and you can expect another 0.5" to 1" by the end of the day tomorrow. Some spots could pick up a bit more rainfall than others with heavier showers/storms, but overall, expect upwards of an inch through the day.
Enjoy any sunshine you see today as showers work back in for Friday. Stay dry and have a good end to the work week tomorrow!
Good afternoon! Shower activity has been held at bay so far today as mostly cloudy skies have been the main story. Similar conditions will continue this afternoon with high's in the low to mid 70's. Looking below, a warm front is working through drawing in well above average temperatures from the south.
As we work into Thursday, we'll see high's pushing 80 degrees here in the valley. For reference, the average high in Knoxville this time of the year is 62. That means we'll be 15+ degrees warmer than average as we work into tomorrow afternoon.
Along with increasing temperatures, we'll see moisture working in as well. The latest models continue trending downward for any severe activity Friday as this system will stay mainly to the north. With that said, waves of scattered showers will work in overnight and into Thursday morning and then again throughout Friday. The heaviest rains, and a few rumbles of thunder, will work in Friday ahead of a cold front. As we get into Saturday, much cooler and drier air works in providing the chance for some limited sunshine in the afternoon hours. Enjoy it while it lasts, clouds and more rain chances return Sunday evening.
Looking a bit longer term at the latest from the CPC, this warm and wet pattern looks to continue to close out the last week of March. The likelihood for above average temperatures and above average precipitation is high, so account for more cloudy, wet, and warm days.
A light coat may be needed in the morning hours tomorrow, otherwise we'll stay very warm throughout the day. Don't forget the umbrellas either as scattered showers remain likely Thursday and again on Friday. If you'd like more information on how we can help your business out, send us an email at SecretCityWx@aol.com or visit our services tab above.
Happy St. Patrick's Day to everyone! I hope your day is a bit more lucky than the weather we have been having. If you take a look below, southwest flow is beginning to dominate from western Texas to New England. This will allow for warming temperatures the next couple of days.
Looking at the latest surface map, remnant showers are working through the valley now before mostly cloudy skies return this afternoon. A high pressure system to the north will keep things mostly dry this afternoon to Wednesday then scattered showers return Wednesday night and Thursday. The main focus will be on Friday afternoon as a system (currently in the Midwest) could bring stronger showers and storms.
The last of the showers are working out now leaving mostly cloudy skies the remainder of today and into Wednesday. By tomorrow evening, additional scattered showers will work in and through Thursday. By Friday, a low pressure system will arrive bringing the chance for some heavier showers and storms. Though the SPC hasn't released an outlook for day 4, I anticipate a marginal to slight risk will cover the region. Models seem to be in agreement that the bulk of "strong stuff" will stay to the north but rounds of heavier showers, embedded thunder, and minor flooding is possible.
Through 11am today we have recorded 0.58" here at the office with mostly cloudy skies beginning to work in now. The graphic below depicts expected rain totals now through Friday afternoon. As you can tell, the bulk of rainfall will stay to the north and west with the heaviest rainfall amounts coming on Friday.
I hope everyone has a safe St. Patrick's day and stay dry this afternoon! We'll continue to monitor any severe weather potential for Friday.
Another chilly start this morning with temperatures into the 40's but warmer air is on the way. With another active week in store, southern flow will help draw in warm Gulf temperatures as well as that moisture much of this week.
If we take a look at the latest surface map, you can see the next weather maker lies just to the west. Showers are expected to work in overnight tonight and continue until early tomorrow afternoon. We'll begin drying back out but cloudy skies will stick around for the second half of Tuesday. High's will begin warming as well, in the mid 60's tomorrow, with mid 70's for Wednesday and Thursday. Keep in mind the average temperature in Knoxville is 62 this time of the year and we could be pushing 80 as we work into Thursday.
For your week ahead, very similar to last week. A mix of scattered showers and cloud cover through the next several days. The best day for any outdoor activity will be tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday before scattered showers work back in for Thursday. Something we'll be eying is the chance for heavier showers and storms for Friday. A strong cold front will work through the Midwest providing the chance for heavy showers and thunderstorms Friday and early Saturday.
This active pattern looks to continue for sometime so prepare for more gloomy and wet days. We'll continue to eye any severe weather chances for Friday, but until then, stay dry!
Happy Friday to you! Showers have been limited to southern Tennessee this morning but by this afternoon, we will all be mostly cloudy. Just to our west is a cold front that will work in overnight and through Saturday. This is a weak front but it will still provide some cooler air over the next 24 hours.
As mentioned, the cold front will work in overnight tonight providing low's in the low to mid 40's. As we work ahead, we'll stay dry for the start of Saturday with a system working through by the afternoon and overnight hours. Scattered showers will continue into Sunday before we dry back out Sunday afternoon and much of Monday.
Very similar to this week, showers will be light and scattered for the weekend and beginning of next week. As model guidance suggests, the first half of the day Saturday will be mostly cloudy with showers arriving in the PM hours. These will remain scattered into Sunday before clearing back out by the afternoon. Realistically, expect the chance for showers each day next week with limited sunshine potential. Again, this next week won't be a washout but more of an annoyance with the scattered showers.
That'll wrap it up for this week but enjoy your weekend! Make use of the first half of Saturday before rain chances increase in the afternoon.
So far today, a few scattered showers have worked through (mainly to the south). As you can see below, the SPC has placed us in a slight risk for severe weather. Just to our north and west, western KY and TN are under an Enhanced risk (3/5). The main threat here at home will be damaging winds but isolated tornadoes and hail up to a quarter in size are possible.
As we look into this afternoon, a warm front will be moving through the area. Just like it is described, the warm front will pull in warm moist air from the Gulf (high dew points). Though the severe threat will stay mainly to our west, this is one of the parameters we look at for severe weather. Moving ahead, a cold front will slide through tomorrow providing cooler air for the start of the weekend.
Looking at the latest model guidance, scattered showers will continue working through this afternoon. By the later half of the day strong storms will begin developing in central Kentucky and working east. If you notice toward the end of the gif, a bowing-like line of showers/storms is working through western TN. This is the line that poses the best risk for severe weather here at home. Luckily, with its arrival in the evening/overnight hours, the system will be dying down. If storms do stay organized long enough, we could see damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and small hail for the northern half of east TN.
Stay up to date the second half of today through our Twitter and Facebook as we'll keep you posted. Also be sure to have a way to receive alerts from the NWS if watches/warnings are issued this evening. Stay weather aware and have a good one!
Check out the latest view from the Stansfield's cam. Not only is it finally not raining, but some peaks of sunshine are shinning through; take advantage! Showers will return tomorrow and parts of Friday and again throughout the weekend.
The latest from the SPC shows severe potential for western TN and KY tomorrow afternoon and evening with only a marginal risk for our neck of the woods. The bulk of heavy showers and storms will stay to the north but damaging winds are something we'll be watching for here at home. As with all severe weather outlooks, isolated spin-up is something we can't forget about but potential is low.
Along with the SPC outlook, the WPC has provided a marginal risk of flash flooding across Tennessee and Kentucky. Isolated flash flooding is possible in heavier showers tomorrow, so be weary if in flood prone areas.
The latest model guidance runs shows the waves of showers and storms working throughout tomorrow and Friday. Friday afternoon we will begin to dry back out, continuing into Saturday morning. Unfortunately, another round of shower activity arrives for Sunday and early next week. As mentioned yesterday, this pattern of scattered showers looks to stick around for the next several days so keep the umbrellas handy.
That concludes the forecast for today but be sure to check in for the latest in regard to any severe potential tomorrow afternoon.