Good afternoon all! Views from Newfound Gap show some left over snow from yesterday morning, but otherwise, partly sunny skies overhead. Satellite shows thin high clouds working in ahead of our next weather maker. High's today should top out in the mid 40's with cloud cover continuing to increase this evening and overnight.
Looking head, a very dynamic system is on the way. This system will continue on a southward trajectory before working back north and east. As it does so, rain will initially be what is falling across the area Thursday evening. As temperatures drop and cold air works in, there could be a transition over to some wintry mix/snow. As of now, model data is all over the place so this will highly depend on the timing of the cold air. The likely scenario, as I see it now, is rain transitioning to mix late for the valley. This could turn to some light snow showers/flurries by the morning hours of Friday, with a few impacts possible (icy roads) across the area. The higher confidence lies in the higher elevations (Smokies & Cumberland Plateau). This is where snow will likely accumulate Thursday night into Friday morning.
To get an idea of what I am talking about, here are two models with very different solutions. The NAM (left) has cold air arriving much sooner than the GFS (right) who is the slowest of the solutions. We will continue to keep you updated as we move closer in time, but I believe the higher elevations will be the biggest concern as valley locations will stick mainly with rain to a mix late (changes likely ahead).
For those looking ahead, this weekend looks pleasant with sunshine and high's in the low to mid 40's. Have a great Wednesday and tune in for updates here and on social media for the latest associated with our next weather maker.
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Good morning! As you can see on satellite, a quick moving system is impact East Tennessee this morning. A majority of the area is seeing cloudy skies with those in northeastern TN under a few showers to snow showers. As this moves off east through the morning, sunshine will begin its return just in time for the afternoon. High's to be a little cooler today with the passage of a cold front in the mid 40's.
As is depicted on satellite, cloud cover is associated with the fast moving front and low. In behind this, we will find high pressure shifting through the day today and for a good chunk of the day Wednesday. By Thursday, our next system arrives. This one is currently bringing heavy snowfall to the central United States.
Besides a few isolated showers/sprinkles through the mid-morning hours, things should stay dry. This is especially true this afternoon as the transition from a frontal passage to rising heights (higher pressure) moves in. Closing the work week out Thursday and Friday, the next weather maker arrives bringing rain, mix precipitation, and snow for some locations. Valley locations (as the norm) can anticipate most precipitation in the form of rain with the Smokies seeing some snowfall. Rain isn't expected to be a washout with mainly isolated to scattered showers the later half of Thursday and into the first half of the day Friday. Those of you with weekend plans should expect to escape with sunshine and high's in the mid 40's (average for this time of the year).
If you'd like to be apart of this year's Secret City Weather East Tennessee Almanac, visit SecretCityWeather.com/Sponsors for more details. Don't forget to also check out your full video forecast below.
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Happy New Year and what a way to start with this view over Clingmans Dome. Temperatures in the valley are currently sitting in the lower 40's with high's to be near 50 degrees early this afternoon. Sunshine should stick around to this evening before a chance for isolated showers graze the northeastern quadrant of the state.
Surface map shows a low to the north with a trailing cold front. This front will slide through overnight providing cloud cover, isolated shower chances, and yes, you guessed it: some cooler temperatures. Not to worry though, temperatures will be right on average for this time of the year with high's tomorrow in the mid 40's. Sunshine will work back in tomorrow afternoon as well, as high pressure from the west replaces the front.
We will be relatively quiet the first half of the week. Besides the isolated shower chances tonight, things stay partly sunny to sunny with temperatures very seasonable. Towards the end of the week we could see some better rain chances from a system to the south, but model guidance is having trouble narrowing in on a solution. As of now, scattered showers are likely during the day for Thursday and early Friday with a few snow flurries possible Wednesday night and Thursday night.
Mid-January paints a similar story with temperatures remaining average. Longer term data suggests the opportunity for a cold swing late January into February, so we'll continue to keep an eye on that. For now, enjoy some sunshine and average temperatures before some rain/flurries mix in later this week.
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Good morning and happy New Year's Eve! Cloud clover and a few sprinkles have arrived to begin the day with more rain on the way. The good news is we are in a spot of the system where rainfall will be the least impactful. With that said, the SPC has included the far western counties of East Tennessee under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. The timing still remains best into tomorrow morning for this line bringing heavy showers and gusty winds to the region.
If we transition to the streamlines map, we can clearly make out a front hanging across the region. As you can see, winds are out of the south/southeast this morning. This will continue to pump moisture and warm temperatures into the region with high's remaining in the mid 50's (today) to even low/mid 60's tomorrow.
For those with plans into 2021, be sure to have some wet gear with you. Model guidance suggests upwards of half an inch total but I am thinking closer to an inch. Regardless, showers will likely be on and off through the first half of the day tomorrow before we begin to dry back out the later half of the weekend. Temperatures will be well above average tomorrow as well with high's in the 50's to 60's during the day.
That will do it for today, I wish everyone a happy and wonderful New Year and we will be back on Monday (still, of course, posting on social media).
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A messy hair day is in the making as strong southwest flow will lead to gusty winds throughout the day today. As you can see below, MUCH warmer air has funneled in and will continue to for Thursday. Winds will hang between 10 and 15 mph at times today with gusts of 20+ possible. High's are expected to top out in the mid 50's with high's near the 60's tomorrow.
Looking at model guidance, the brunt of the system continues to stay just to the west (good news). Instead of an all day rain event we will more than likely see showers and storms in waves on and off throughout the day. A few showers/storms could be heavy at times producing isolated flash flooding, strong winds, and even an isolated tornado if the parameters set up correctly. The timing of this looks to fall in two spots, one in the afternoon/evening hours of Thursday and then again for the morning hours of New Year's Day (Friday).
As of now, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) does not have East Tennessee under any note-worthy categories but things could change this afternoon. Regardless, keep in mind a few heavier thunderstorms can't be entirely ruled out the second half of the day tomorrow and into Friday morning.
We will continue to monitor our next weather maker, but for now, strap down your hats and shed the winter gear as winds will be breezy and high's will be in the mid to upper 50's. Things should stay dry through much of the day with showers not arriving until overnight.
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A dense fog advisory is currently in place from Knoxville down to Athens and east for low visibility issues in some areas. As we work into the day, this will expire rather quickly as sunshine will makes its return. We will see high's right on par with averages in the mid to upper 40's.
As you could see on the surface map, our next weather makes sits just to the west. Though things stay dry and partly sunny today, cloud cover will migrate back in this evening and overnight. Wednesday should stay mostly dry before showers eventually work in by the evening and overnight hours. New Year's Eve is where we will find the bulk of activity on and off throughout the day. Guidance continues to suggest the track of this system running northeast but with the center staying west of East Tennessee. This means we'll see more outer shower activity in waves throughout the day and into New Year's. If you do have some outdoor plans for the "ball drop" or even into New Year's Day, be sure to bring the wet gear as shower activity will be possible through lunch time Friday.
With Christmas and the winter weather we dealt with going on, we didn't get the chance to touch on drought from this past week. As you can see below, conditions remain the same from mid-December. If the track of our next weather maker stays in line with model guidance, we could see some changes (for the good) to this map later in the week. Some areas could see several inches of rain into Western TN.
That will wrap it up for today but if you'd like to be apart of this year's Secret City Weather Almanac you can find information at SecretCityWeather.com/Sponsors.
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Happy Monday to you! I hope you had a good Christmas and weekend. That rare occurrence of a white Christmas did happen for many of us with the official snow totals from the NWS released below. As we anticipated, snow totals increased eastward with Knoxville picking up around 3 inches versus Oak Ridge around 0.8". Shaded roadways still have some snow laying on the ground, but with high's around 50 today, that should help continue the melting process.
As we work ahead, cloud cover decreases overnight giving way to the chance for some patchy fog Tuesday morning. Through the day tomorrow, temperatures stay near average (mid to upper 40's) with partly cloudy skies. By Wednesday, cloud cover returns as a system from the west draws near. Scattered showers arrive Wednesday night with rain likely throughout the day Thursday. As of now, most of the rain should be out by the "Ball Drop" at midnight but it will depend on where you are. This system will move west to east so counties east will be dealing with this line later into the night. We will give more details on the exact timeframe as we work closer to Thursday.
As we push into 2021, the CPC suggests temperatures to remain right around average to above average for this time of the year. As you can see, a majority of the United States will likely be above average as we enter the first week of the new year.
That wraps it up for today, if you would like to be apart of the year's Almanac, visit SecretCityWeather.com/sponsors for a spot in this year's release.
"Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow" I hope you are enjoying your Christmas Eve so far. As you can tell, the Arctic front has arrived bringing snow to the region. This screenshot is from Lovell Road in Knoxville showing a nice line of snow showers falling. For those on the road ways, especially tonight, be extremely weary of road conditions. Due to the rapidly dropping temperatures we have had, icy conditions are likely overnight and into Christmas Day. Low's tonight will plummet into the mid to upper teens with little of a warm up Christmas Day.
In fact, high's will only find themselves into the mid 20's for much of the day. Winds will also play a factor in temperatures with feel-like temperatures in the teens. For areas highlighted in the High Wind Warning (East TN Smokies & SW Virginia) I would not be surprised to see feel-like temperatures as low as the 0 degrees. Prepare for a cold Christmas day regardless of where you are.
The timing was perfect with this system because high pressure will move back in warming things up rather quickly Friday and this weekend. As you can see below, high pressure sits to the west and will bring sunshine back in for the day tomorrow. This will likely help with snow melt through the day tomorrow (even with high's just below freezing). A few snow flurries with be around on and off tomorrow, otherwise things stay mostly clear and sunny. Working forward, sunshine looks to stick around through the weekend with high's returning to the 50's.
To finish, here's a look at your Christmas Day records. Though we'll be cold tomorrow, Knoxville won't be breaking any new records. A Christmas Day forecast can be seen on our Twitter & Facebook. (Hint cold, sunny, & a few snow flurries possible)
That will wrap it up on this Christmas Eve but I wish everyone a safe, warm, and MERRY Christmas!
What's on the plate today weather-wise? Well, we begin this morning with some cloud cover moving in from the west. This is all associated with our next powerful system that looks to bring precipitation in many forms. As for today, cloud cover will continue to increase before showers arrive overnight.
A look at Thursday afternoon (Christmas Eve), an Arctic cold front will hammer its way in from the west. This cold air mass will just be riding the back edge of the precipitation shield giving chance to some snow showers (touch more on that below). I just wanted to give you an idea of how cold things could get in such a short amount of time. Looking in Knoxville Thursday morning, temperatures will be around the 50 mark while Nashville will be in the upper 30's and 20's for far western Tennessee.
Jumping into our next storm system, I will do my best to break this down. First, anticipate isolated to scattered showers this evening with heavier rainfall following into tomorrow (mid) morning. We aren't anticipating wide spread flooding by any means, but flood prone areas could see some water build-up. Showers into Thursday will be moderate to heavy with 3/4" to an inch of rain likely. Going further into detail, for the all important snow forecast, it still remains complicated.
Later models, along with short term high resolution models, are trending toward a slower cold front arrival time (bad news for snow lovers). With that said, we are still nearly a day and a half out with this system currently sitting in South Dakota (as of writing this post). Model guidance does a fairly poor job of depicting these transition zones, especially with the topography we have across the region and origin of this system. With all of that said, changes still remain likely and we will continue to update you along the way. The graphic below depicts the more confident output we have moving into Christmas morning. The Central Valley and north will likely pick up anywhere between a dusting to 2 inches (likely amounts looking from the southern tip of the valley and northward). For those closer to the Smokies, 1-3" seems more reasonable with higher amounts as you work up in elevation. As is almost always the case, we will see this horseshoe shape due to topography differences. I would also like to mention some chatter from the NWS of a possible Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Valley and Plateau, so we'll let you know if they issue that as well. The NWS has issued a high wind warning for the Smokies tonight and tomorrow as strong winds are likely across the area. This will only add to the cold temperatures the second half of the day tomorrow and early into Christmas. Feel like temperatures in the single digits would not surprise me overnight Thursday. They have also put in place a winter storm watch for Thursday afternoon into Christmas morning for the Smokies and into southwest Virginia.
I will continue to emphasize the dynamics associated with this system are tricky. We will monitor this throughout the day and of course overnight with a better idea of what to expect moving forward. For now, anticipate moderate to heavy rains at times tomorrow morning before a transition to snow takes place. How much snow will depend on the timing of the front. We'll be active on social media tonight, so be sure to check us out: @SecretCityWx (Twitter & Facebook). We also have some more details on your Christmas Day forecast in our daily video below.
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Good morning! This view comes courtesy of TDOT on Lovell Road in Knoxville. Clear skies will begin the day and continue throughout as high pressure sits overhead. With the system to our north yesterday, a cold front did pass through the area. This will keep temperatures at bay today (lower 50's) before return flow warms things up for Hump Day (tomorrow).
Short-term data is beginning to feed in along with a narrowing consensus as it relates to the wintry precipitation expected Christmas Eve. First, the dynamics with this next storm system are impressive. Rain will begin the event Wednesday night bringing moderate to heavy rainfall at times and gusty winds. Areas that are very flood prone could see minor flooding, so be careful. As we work into Thursday, a cold front will power its way through bringing a transition to snowfall in the afternoon and evening. There are still some questions on how quick this cold front will move through. A quicker arrival will allow for more snowfall, while a slower arrival leaves less potential.
As data (especially short term higher resolution data) comes in, we will have a better picture/grasp on the arrival time of the cold air mass. For now, here is a look at two model extremes showing higher snow totals with a quicker arrival time (right) versus a slower arrival time (left) with lesser totals. Either way, data is narrowing in on a solution. With what's in front of us right now, I do expect some accumulation across the region. The central valley and north can expect (as of now) half an inch to an inch. Further east, the foothills and into the Smokies will near the 1-3" mark with much higher totals expected on the peaks and higher elevations. Some changes are likely in store ahead, so check back in for updates along the way.
A beautiful day is in the making today with temperatures remaining above average. A big change is in store the later half of the week so be sure to tune in for updates here and on social media. We will continue to provide the latest as it relates to the timing of the cold front as this will be our biggest judge on how much snowfall we see across East Tennessee. For now, pretty minor accumulations are expected but things are likely to change some over the next couple of days.
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