Rainfall is beginning to peter out this morning as remnants of Beta continue to work eastward. The latest 24-hour precipitation accumulation map shows totals near the 4 inch mark for parts of McMinn to the south of Knoxville. The remainder of the area is lying in the 2 to 2.5 inch mark from Chattanooga to Jefferson City. All in all, movement of the system did work a bit further east with the later models we saw yesterday. Flooding conditions stayed limited as of this morning but if you have a report, you may send it to SecretCityWx@aol.com or by tagging us on social media.
Looking at the latest surface map, the low associated with Beta is working east, leaving a bit of drier air in behind. Unfortunately, this won't stick around too long as another system to the north and west will swoop through. This will allow for scattered showers the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Following the system, a steep cold front will leave high's Wednesday and onward in the lower 70's to mid/upper 60's.
Doing a little teleconnection analysis, the Arctic Oscillation is phasing towards a negative signature....so what does that mean? As a brief background, teleconnections are large scale "signals" based on pressure and circulation differences. In this case, a -AO indicates the likelihood for cooler air across the southeast and and weaker trade winds off the coast of Africa. This relationship can be seen as we work into the next 3-8 days. Activity in the Tropics (as of this morning) have all but ceased and cooler temperatures are expected to migrate in the second half of next week. As shown from the graph below, AO will shift back positive, but it will be nice to feel a Fall front and have little activity in the Atlantic. I would also like to mention teleconnections are not see all be all, they are only guidance to help in a longer term forecast.
As showers work out this morning, drier air will move in tonight. For the most part, expect showers to be out of the Valley by 2pm this afternoon. Most of us will stay dry tonight and through Saturday before scattered showers return Sunday and Monday with the next system. Once the cold front moves through, Wednesday, sunny skies will remain as cool dry air dominates behind the front.
With lots on the plate today, check out all the details through the video forecast below. If Secret City Weather can help you, be sure to shoot us an email or visit our "Services" tab above. Have a wonderful weekend and check in on Twitter/Facebook for updates throughout the next couple of days.
Shower activity continues this morning as the low from Beta works across the region. As of 7:30am, our office has recorded 0.22" of rainfall. Guidance is suggesting totals between the 1.5 and 3 inch mark depending on your area. Flash flooding remains a major concern as a 10%-20% (Slight risk) is still in place for today.
As of last night at the 0Z run, models still were a bit optimistic on the path of this system. The NAM left the bulk of moisture a bit further west, while the GFS more eastward. As of this morning things are starting to come together. The GFS is still pushing for higher totals across the area, which makes a bit more sense given the orientation, movement, and duration we are expecting. Short-term high resolution data is somewhat in agreeance as well but keeps the heavier rainfall totals limited to the southern half of Tennessee. As we have described, totals won't be uniformed across east Tennessee. In total, based on the latest data, I believe totals between the 1.5 and 3" mark are right on cue. Higher totals are likely for the southern (Chattanooga & west) and central regions of Tennessee (Plateau & middle TN). Continue to check in for updates throughout the day as flooding could likely become a concern.
The general consensus remains as seen below. As this low moves through, the heaviest rainfall will be in southern and middle Tennessee. If we see a push further east (as some data is suggesting this morning) then expect totals to follow suit. A large concern we are seeing is the rainfall through the day followed by heavy showers tonight. The ground likely won't handle heavy rainfall to an already saturated surface well, leaving rising waters.
Continue to check in for updates throughout the day and provide reports when you can. Flooding is a concern, especially as we work into this evening and overnight. For more information, check out the daily video forecast below.
Good afternoon! Cloud cover continues to pour in from the south and west as remnants of Beta draw closer. For the most part, showers will stay contained to the west, but a few light sprinkles are possible in the Plateau this afternoon. As we work ahead, expect showers to slowly work in tonight and throughout Thursday.
The Day 3 release from the WPC shows a Slight risk of flash flooding across the southern half of the viewing area. A 10% to 20% chance of flash flooding is possible. Those who are in low-lying areas and flood-prone areas, take the proper precautions now. Showers are expected to work in Thursday morning and continue on and off through Friday morning.
A look at model guidance shows showers from Beta working in from the south and west. Given the orientation of the rainfall and movement, east Tennessee will likely get hit the hardest will rainfall totals as high as 3+". If you recall from Monday morning, models indicated heavier rainfall totals would stay further west but as we are getting close to time, they've worked a bit further east. Flash flooding definitely is something of a concern Thursday through Friday morning, so check in here, the NWS, and local emergency officials for updates. By Friday night we should have a brief reprieve from rain before isolated to scattered showers arrive for the weekend (associated with a second system).
Better news is in the long term as another large cold front is planned for late September and early October. The latest data is suggesting high's as cool as the mid 60's by early October so stay tuned for changes/updates. For now, keep the umbrellas handy and look out for flooding across the region. We welcome your reports and they can be sent via email at SecretCityWx@aol.com or by tagging us on social media. We will pass those along to the NWS in Morristown.
Gorgeous views over Newfound Gap this morning with light fog still hanging there in the background. As we have been fortunate enough to see the past few days, sunny skies and fall-like temperatures will be around again today. Cloud cover will begin funneling in this evening and overnight as moisture pushes into the area.
A look at the latest surface map shows a high pressure system that has nosed in from New England. As remnants of Beta work eastward, this high will break down and work out. Beta will keep moisture locked in the later half of the work week before a second system brings additional shower chances this weekend and early next week.
Model guidance paints the story the next couple of days. As remnants of Beta work in, shower chances increase from south west to northeast. Thursday and part of Friday will be our wettest days will rain totals in Middle TN up to 3+ inches and east Tennessee nearing 1 inch. Flash flooding potential is something on our radar for the Plateau so stay tuned and take the proper precautions.
Enjoy what's left of the sunshine today as cloud cover and rain chances increase in the days ahead. We will also see temperatures increasing back into the 80's before another swift cold front knocks things back into the 70's (and even 60's) by the end of September and start of October.
Good morning to you! If you haven't left the house yet, be sure to throw on a coat. As you can see below, current temperatures are in the upper 40's and lower 50's across the valley. Fortunately, we will warm up to another beautiful day in the mid 70's with plenty of sunshine.
Looking at the latest surface map, a high pressure system is positioned in New England keeping things sunny and comfortable again today and tomorrow. Longer term, another tropical system will bring precipitation chances across the region. As indicated by the name, the National Hurricane Center has run out of hurricane names for the 2020 season. This is only the SECOND time in history this has ever happened. As Beta works north and east, moisture will accompany and begin arriving by Thursday. A low in behind will also provide rain chances through the weekend.
As you would expect, things will be peaceful the first half of the work week. As we work into Wednesday, winds shift to out of the south, pushing in moisture and warmer temperatures. By Thursday, shower chances are back in the forecast. Given the latest model data, scattered showers are possible Thursday through the weekend under broken to cloudy skies. High's will gradually increase as well, back to the 80's on Friday and Saturday.
Overall, enjoy the first half of this work week before a more dreary pattern presents itself later in the week. High's will also increase but stay at to slightly above average for this time of the year. If you enjoyed some outdoor time: hiking, the lake, camping, etc. don't forget to share with us! Send you pictures to SecretCityWx@aol.com or by tagging us on social media (Twitter &/or Facebook).
Cloudy skies continue to stick around for most this afternoon, but clearing is already on the way! Just to the west, sunny skies have migrated in which should continue overnight tonight. As we close out the remainder of the day, temperatures should remain in the mid 70's with spouts of sunshine peaking in.
Working longer term, a slight warming trend is in the forecast. The latest data suggests at to slight above average temperatures for the end of September and into the start of October. Keep in mind averages for this time of the year are in the low 80's, so given the late summer extreme heat we dealt with a few weeks ago, this shouldn't be too bad.
Overall, clearing will continue tonight providing a gorgeous weekend and early next week. For more information on drought, longer term impacts, and a full forecast, check out the latest video below.
Good morning! The latest 24-hour precipitation analysis shows the life-threatening rainfall for parts of Florida and Alabama. Due to the nature of this storm as its slow movement before landfall, some parts of this region picked up 10+ inches of rainfall in a 24 hour period.
As what is left of Sally works north and mainly east, heavy rainfall will continue as depicted by the WPC excessive rainfall outlook below. A marginal risk for flash flooding covers most of east Tennessee today, so look out for those in flood prone areas. I still believe most of the activity will hang to counties far south and east throughout today. Specifically, counties like Polk up to Cocke will likely see the highest rainfall amounts before the day is over with.
The good news is once Sally moves out tomorrow morning, we'll start to see some clearing taking place. A front to the west will force Sally eastward bringing drier and cooler air behind it. Showers will end early Friday, leaving the remainder of the day cloudy and cool. For Saturday, we will gradually clear out with sunshine returning by the afternoon and through Sunday and early next week. Comfortable to cool temperatures will also accompany with high's in the mid 70's and overnight low's in the low to mid 50's. A fall-feel is definitely upon us, so take advantage of the overall beautiful weekend we are expecting.
For more insight on the weather in east Tennessee, check out our daily video below or email us at SecretCityWx@aol.com for more information. We'll see a mix of showers throughout today before gradually clearing Friday and early Saturday.
Sally has now officially made landfall in Alabama as a category 2 hurricane. Because of how slow she has moved the past couple of days, life-threatening flooding is expected in the Gulf. Sally is expected to work north and south, bringing the bulk of showers (here at home) to those farthest south and east.
As seen here on model guidance, remnants of Sally will work through the heart of Alabama and Georgia. The northern edge of this system will likely bring showers throughout east Tennessee Thursday, with the heaviest and most widespread activity contained to southern and far most east Tennessee. By Friday, clearing will begin taking place the second half of the day. Sunny skies and beautiful fall-like conditions find us through the weekend and early next week.
Check out the low's across the region Saturday morning! With skies quickly clearing by Friday night, overnight low's will drop into the upper 40's and lower 50's. Saturday night into Sunday morning could be even cooler with mid to upper 40's possible. Either way, that cool fall feel has arrived so take advantage!
We will continue to eye Sally for rainfall amounts and impacts through the region. For now, be weary of the heaviest rainfall (& potential flooding) along the southern and eastern tips of east TN. Clearer skies work in later on Friday setting up a gorgeous weekend.
The latest satellite shot shows Sally just off of coast, expected to make landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. This hurricane was a category 2 yesterday afternoon but now has decreased to a category 1 (sustained winds of 85 mph). She will make landfall this afternoon before working north and east in the days ahead.
It is almost mind blowing to see the amount of activity in the Atlantic this week. In fact, there is only one more name on the list for the National Hurricane Center (Wilfred) before the Greek alphabet is used. Twenty-one, now Vicky, will work west before dissipating with time. Teddy will continue westward as well, giving the chance to make impacts to Bermuda later in the week. Keep in mind this is peak hurricane season and the official end doesn't come until the end of November (2.5 months).
As Sally impacts the southeast, temperatures will stay cool through the end of the work week and the weekend. High's will be below average in the mid to upper 70's. Shower activity will be possible (mainly) Thursday and Friday with sunny skies returning for most of the weekend. If you don't have any plans yet, it would be good to make some! Sunny skies and high's in the 70's should dominate much of Saturday and all of Sunday.
For more details on the path of Sally and how this could impact Tennessee, watch the daily video forecast below. That will wrap it up today though, hang in there as better conditions find us late Friday and into the weekend.
Cloud cover lingers around this morning as a front stretches across the region. As we saw the second half of the day yesterday, a few scattered showers are possible throughout the first half of today. By tonight, clearer skies will work in leaving things dry and cool for the start of Tuesday.
Another very active week in the Tropics with 4 named systems (Twenty is Teddy). A fifth is likely on the way (Just to the north of "Twenty"-> now Teddy) as strengthening is likely in the next 24 hours. Our main focus continues to be on Sally. As of this morning she remains a tropical storm but is expected to strengthen to a hurricane by the end of the day. This slow moving tropical system is expected to make landfall near the Louisiana/Mississippi border as a category 1 to weaker category 2 hurricane. The timing comes early Tuesday afternoon before moving north and east into Alabama and southern Tennessee. Rainfall chances will pick up mid to late week as this system works closer.
As for model guidance today, a few scattered showers are likely throughout with high's in the mid 80's. Clearer skies will work in behind the front tonight but won't stick around for long. As Sally draws closer, isolated to scattered showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday and Friday, showers will be more widespread before drier air returns mid to late weekend. We will also see cooler temperatures across east Tennessee with high's expected to be in the mid to upper 70's the second half of the work week and into the weekend.
If you can make it through the first half of the day, much better conditions will find us this evening and overnight. Clear skies & patchy fog should start the day Tuesday morning before shower chances increase through the work week.
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