Shower activity continues this morning as the low from Beta works across the region. As of 7:30am, our office has recorded 0.22" of rainfall. Guidance is suggesting totals between the 1.5 and 3 inch mark depending on your area. Flash flooding remains a major concern as a 10%-20% (Slight risk) is still in place for today.
As of last night at the 0Z run, models still were a bit optimistic on the path of this system. The NAM left the bulk of moisture a bit further west, while the GFS more eastward. As of this morning things are starting to come together. The GFS is still pushing for higher totals across the area, which makes a bit more sense given the orientation, movement, and duration we are expecting. Short-term high resolution data is somewhat in agreeance as well but keeps the heavier rainfall totals limited to the southern half of Tennessee. As we have described, totals won't be uniformed across east Tennessee. In total, based on the latest data, I believe totals between the 1.5 and 3" mark are right on cue. Higher totals are likely for the southern (Chattanooga & west) and central regions of Tennessee (Plateau & middle TN). Continue to check in for updates throughout the day as flooding could likely become a concern.
The general consensus remains as seen below. As this low moves through, the heaviest rainfall will be in southern and middle Tennessee. If we see a push further east (as some data is suggesting this morning) then expect totals to follow suit. A large concern we are seeing is the rainfall through the day followed by heavy showers tonight. The ground likely won't handle heavy rainfall to an already saturated surface well, leaving rising waters.
Continue to check in for updates throughout the day and provide reports when you can. Flooding is a concern, especially as we work into this evening and overnight. For more information, check out the daily video forecast below.
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