Finally the end of the work week has arrived but with some changes in the weather forecast. We are starting the morning with patchy fog and partly cloudy skies and will transition to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. High's remain warm in the upper 70's with clouds increasing throughout the later half of the day. A look at the SPC shows a Marginal Risk for severe storms just to the west. A line of showers & storms ahead of a cold front will work through late tonight and into Saturday morning. The good news is these will weaken as they move east, but some thunder/lightning and some gusty winds aren't out of the question.
Looking at model guidance, we see light scattered showers across East Tennessee initially tonight. Working further into the overnight hours and into Saturday morning, the line associated with a cold front will work through. As mentioned, the heavier showers/storms will stay to the west but a few strokes of lightning and gusty winds in heavier pockets are possible as we get into Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, things will calm back down with cloudy skies overhead. Sunday and early next week will all be similar with partly to broken skies and a few afternoon isolated showers possible.
Rainfall totals through Saturday afternoon will be in the half an inch to inch mark. Totals will vary given heavier pockets of showers/thunderstorms will provide more rainfall, but overall upwards of half an inch will likely be the average. With severe potential very low, this will be a good opportunity to receive a fresh bed of rainfall and keep any potential drought at bay.
That will wrap it up today, but we will be providing updates on social media as this line of showers works closer. If you don't follow us on Twitter or Facebook, you can follow along by viewing our tweets along the right side of this page. Have a great weekend and anticipate a big swing in temperatures in the next 7-10 days (more details to come Monday).
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GOES-16 East paints a pretty picture this morning with limited cloud cover encompassing the southeast. Unfortunately, we'll see some changes to this picture Friday and early into the weekend but things stay warm and dry today. In fact, high's will return to near 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies.
The forecast ahead remains relatively the same. Cloud cover will build in for the second half of Friday bringing with it the chance for isolated to scattered showers. This looks to continue into Saturday as well where a weak cold air mass follows. This will cool things down Saturday afternoon to highs in the low to mid 70's before warming temperatures return Sunday and early next week. Overall, Saturday will be our best day for shower activity as this line works its way through. With how dry and warm we have been the past several days, a fresh bed of rainfall will be nice in helping to prevent drought conditions to return across the state.
Longer term, we will likely see rain activity pick back up across East Tennessee as the pattern looks to change late October/early November. As we highlighted yesterday, much cooler air is expected to return later this month, bringing high's back down below average. For now, do your best to enjoy the warm and somewhat sticky air we have through the end of the week and into next week.
A good Wednesday morning to you! Looking overhead I-40E in the West Hills area of Knoxville, things are quiet (weather-wise). We can see there in the background, as well as satellite, things are mostly clear to start the day. For the day itself, anticipate it to be relatively warm with sunny skies and high's around 80.
With a high pressure system remaining just to the east, return flow from its anti-cyclonic (clockwise) circulation is allowing warm air to funnel in. Changes do come later Friday as cloud cover and a chance for limited moisture work across the region.
A look at model guidance paints the story. Things stay warm and dry today and tomorrow before a low moving through the Great Lakes brings showers and a weak cold front through East Tennessee. This next system won't be too impressive with upwards of a few tenths of an inch possible Friday and Saturday. Longer term is where we will see the largest changes with another shot of cold air and the chance for heavier showers and storms.
For more details into when you can expect this shot of cold air, watch today's video forecast. A little hint though, we will more than likely find high's back into the 50's and low's into the lower 30's to upper 20's. Until the swing in conditions, expect things to stay at to above average with a mix of showers scattered in for early this weekend and again early next week.
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We are seeing some patchy fog hanging around parts of the valley this morning, so account for a little extra time to work & school. A look into the Tropics shows a familiar seen this year: more activity. Tropical Storm Epsilon is currently in the mid-Atlantic and will banana north and east with time. Epsilon does not pose a threat to the US in the days ahead. However, an area of low pressure sits to the east of Mexico bringing the potential for weaker activity in the days ahead. For now, this system has a less than 40% chance of forming in the next 48 hours.
With high's today topping out near 80, the warm trend will continue for Wednesday and Thursday. A look at high's tomorrow shows temperatures nearly 10 degrees above average. The same can be said for Thursday as well before cooler air arrives with rain chances into the weekend.
A high pressure system is placed just to our east. This is what is keeping dry air in place for East Tennessee and gives the weird orientation of the system to our north. This is also why we have been so warm and will continue to be tomorrow and Thursday. The return flow of the ridge is funneling in warm southern air. As we work ahead, showers to our north (Kentucky) will wade out, leaving sunny skies Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, a new system arrives bringing the potentials for isolated showers through the day and into Saturday.
That will wrap it up for today, but as always, thank you for choosing Secret City Weather.
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Fall is officially in full swing with lots of colors being shown in the Caryville area this past weekend. It was a beautiful one for a hike, camping, or other outdoor activities. That trend looks to continue much of this week with dry conditions hanging around and temperatures shifting to above normal.
With a bit of cloud cover hanging around overnight and into this morning, it would lead you to think showers are quickly on the way. Luckily, the system to our north and west will stay to the north and move eastward through today. For the most part, sunshine will stay overhead but a few scattered clouds will roll through from time to time (likely again this evening).
Pressing forward, any showers activity will be to the north and west. By mid-week, the entire region should return to dry air, sunny skies, and warm temperatures. In fact, we are looking to have high's nearly 10 degrees above average for Wednesday and Thursday. Rounding out the work week on Friday, cloudy skies and isolated to scattered shower chances return.
For now, try to get out and enjoy the Fall colors. The vast majority of our area will stay dry through 3/4 of the work week before a limited chance for showers returns to the mix. Have a great Monday and let us know if we can do anything for you or your business! Visit our "Services" tab for more information.
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The cold front has arrived and cooler air is beginning to funnel in. Along with this, we are seeing post-frontal shower activity across the region. This will begin to work out by the mid-morning hours, allowing for clearing the remainder of the day.
As we work into tonight, the biggest concern will be the first frost of the new season. Areas in the northern half of East TN, the Plateau, and Smokies are all at risk. Some areas, specifically Washington County and the higher elevations of the Smokies, could see freezing conditions as temps drop to at/below 32 degrees. Be sure to cover any plants that you have of value tonight. We'll see warmer temperatures back in the forecast through the weekend and into next week.
Overall, things stay calm the next several days. A high pressure system will settle overhead, allowing for lots of dry air, sunshine, and warming temperatures. We have another shot of moisture by mid-week next week, but things stay dry until then (once today's morning moisture dissipates out).
Temperatures will be chilly this afternoon and cold for those getting up early tomorrow. Be sure to cover those plants, especially for those who live in the areas mentioned above. High's will gradually return to near average by Sunday with a continued warming trend into early next work week. Have a good weekend and if you do see some frost, let us know through social media or by email: SecretCityWx@aol.com.
Current temperatures this morning are in the mid to upper 50's and will warm to high's around 80 degrees. Though it'll be warm for this time of the year, we'll see a quick turn around for Friday. A seasonably cold air mass is working through the Midwest and will find its way into East Tennessee by Friday morning.
A look at the surface map for tonight shows the front beginning to work in. Along with the front, we will likely see a few isolated showers. By mid-morning tomorrow, things should dry out and cloud cover will slowly work east as well. To the west, a high pressure system will fill in providing sunny skies and temperatures slowly nearing average by Monday.
Looking at model guidance, showers will arrive by the midnight hour tonight and work out by the morning, Friday. With little moisture associated with the front this far south, precipitation will be hit or miss across the area. At best, I expect a few hundreds of an inch before this line works out. As we get into the day tomorrow, cloud cover and the chilly temperatures will be the main feature. A concern we are eyeing into Saturday is the potential for frost. Overnight low's Friday will be in the mid to upper 30's. The biggest concern is for those in the foothills of the Smokies and to the north. If you are located in the northern half of East TN, I would take the proper precautions for your plants overnight Friday. I know for many the growing season is coming to an end, but for those still hanging on, warmer temperatures will be back in the forecast.
That will wrap it up for today...much cooler air will find its way in to end the work week tomorrow, but above average temps hang around this afternoon.
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Happy Hump Day! Patchy fog is being seen across the valley this morning, so take a little extra time on your way to work and school. As it lifts mid-morning, sunny skies will once again return with high's in the mid to upper 70's. A high pressure system stays overhead providing plenty of dry and warm air today and tomorrow. In fact, high's will be nearly 10 degrees above average Thursday with high's topping out in the low 80's for some.
By Thursday night, a sharp cold front will find its way through the Tennessee valley. Check out temperature differences Thursday evening, a 10 to 15 degree difference on either side of the front. Most will be lucky to see high's in the 60's Friday afternoon with the coldest air we've seen so far this season and cloudy skies likely much of the day. Something I would like to highlight is the potential for FROST Saturday morning. Overnight low's Friday will be be in the mid 30's range, where frost could be an issue. As we get closer to time, we will have a better understanding of how quick cloud cover will move out (a very important role in how cool things get). As a precaution, plan for patchy frost in some areas Friday night and we'll have more details as this front draws closer.
In addition to much cooler air, scattered showers are also likely late Thursday and through the first half of Friday. The majority of showers will hang to the north but don't be surprised to pick up a few hundreds of an inch through the day. Following the front, and associated showers, a high will build in bringing more sunshine for the weekend. Things will begin to work back towards average with high's in the upper 60's to low 70's Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will continue to warm today and tomorrow but if you are a fan of the cold, good news is on the way. For now, enjoy the sunshine and mild temperatures.
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Good morning and I hope everyone enjoyed their extended weekend. With hurricane Delta gone, we will see cooler temperatures (today only) and sunnier skies returning. There was a record worth noting though...Chattanooga picked up 2.08 inches of rainfall on Friday, beating the previous day-time record of 1.85" in 1905. A look at observed rainfall totals late last week and early into the weekend can be found below as well.
Moving ahead, there isn't too much in the short term forecast. A snapshot of satellite late last night and early this morning shows the isolated showers (mainly to the north) and cloud cover we had. This was all associated with the cooler air we have across the region and will feel this afternoon. High's today will top out right around average of 72 degrees with sunnier skies working in by this afternoon.
Longer term, things will gradually warm back up with above average temps tomorrow and Thursday. By Friday, a stout cold front will move through, dropping temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average. Along will much cooler air, a few isolated showers late Thursday and early Friday can't be ruled out. Overall, keep those jackets handy late this week as a cool down is on its way.
Enjoy the conditions today as temperatures will hang around the average. We'll warm in the days ahead before quickly cooling back down Friday and the weekend. Have a good start to the shortened work week!
Good afternoon and I hope some of you are enjoying the extended weekend! Things have dried out across the area but cloud cover still remains. A weak front to the west is sliding through, eventually bringing clearer skies by tomorrow. For the rest of this afternoon, gradually clearing, a few sprinkles, and high's in the upper 70's can be expected.
The latest surface map shows the front trying to move through. As mentioned, don't be caught off guard if you feel a few sprinkles drop this evening. Little moisture is associated, so any rain that falls will be very light and quick moving. By Tuesday, a high pressure system will dig in from the west drying things out entirely and providing some much needed sunshine.
In the days ahead, things return to a quiet state. The high will keep temperatures above average the first half of the week, but sharp changes are in store the later half. A strong cold front from Canada will work south, providing MUCH cooler air across the Mid-Atlantic. This pattern shift is being compared, by some forecasters, to that of an early winter phase. Though conditions won't be winter-like across east Tennessee, we will see below average temps. The biggest highlights Friday and this weekend will be patchy frost and likely the coldest overnight low's we've had since March/April. Along will the blast of colder air, a few light and isolated showers are in the forecast for Thursday and early Friday.
Taking an early look at Friday's afternoon high's, we are seeing upper 50's for most and a few low 60's for counties to the south. The average high for this time of the year varies between 69 (Tri-Cities) and 73 (Chattanooga) with Knoxville around 71. This pattern shift looks to keep below average temperatures in play not only this weekend but also much of next week.
With the holiday today, I went without a video broadcast but will return to the norm tomorrow. I also wanted to touch on some feedback we received over the weekend. Because of the configuration of this site, true timestamps aren't an available option. With that said, I will keep a conscious effort on making sure the posted date is that of the true date. I will sometimes begin a post the evening before and finish it the day of posting (I believe this is why it is one day off). Regardless, thank you for bringing it to our attention and we hope to have that corrected from here on out. I want to wish every one a great rest of Columbus Day and if Secret City Weather can help you out in anyway, send us an email at SecretCityWx@aol.com
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