Good afternoon and I hope you are staying dry. It has been a wet one much of the day and will continue to be as we work into this afternoon. Looking across the nation right now, a very clear cold air mass is working through, dropping temps to the west into the 20 and 30's. Working into tonight, expect low's in the mid to upper 20's and high's Wednesday in the low to mid 40's.
Looking at the surface map right now, the cold front continues to work through dropping those temperatures through today and overnight. A transition is beginning to take place into parts of middle TN and will work in by this afternoon and evening here in the valley. This system is expected to move out overnight leaving chilly temperatures Wednesday but sunny skies by the afternoon.
Looking at model guidance and comparing it to the latest radar scan, mixing is taking place just west of Cookeville right now. As temperatures continue to fall, rain will change to frozen matter this afternoon and evening. As model guidance is suggesting, a quick moving system will allow for limited accumulation tonight and clearer skies for tomorrow.
Looking at the overall totals, we will stick with our original forecast from yesterday with a few tenths of an inch. Locally higher amounts are possible working into the northern valley, but with warm surface temperatures (50's today and 60's yesterday) snowfall will be limited. Expect any accumulation to be on grassy surfaces, leaving clear road ways into Wednesday (YAY). Even though we are not anticipating travel issues, be weary of slick spots with low's dropping into the mid/upper 20's overnight.
That concludes today's forecast but stay up to date via Twitter & Facebook for any changes in the forecast through today. Have a good one and don't forget the jacket tomorrow!
Happy Monday to everyone! We started a bit wet this morning but have dried out this afternoon staying most cloudy. As you can see below, major changes will be taking place in the next 24/36 hours as a strong cold front is expected to slide through tomorrow.
Looking at the latest surface map for the time being, showers will redevelop overnight tonight and into Tuesday before a cold front moves in tomorrow (early afternoon). This front will decrease temperatures rapidly through the day leaving low's near 30 degrees tomorrow night. Following this system, a brief high will keep things cool and dry Wednesday and Thursday before a short wave brings more moisture to close the work week on Friday.
Looking at one of several models, this one shows a quicker transition with snowfall in the mix. This forecast is quit challenging due to the timing of the front, temperatures, amount of precipitable water, and topography. Data is from model-to-model, meaning one model may suggest one thing and another may suggest something else. Analyzing the latest data from the NWS, these events historically do not produce much accumulation in the valley. As we saw with the last system (very similar), little to no snowfall was recorded. Given all the data available right now, I will safely give a dusting to a few tenths of an inch possible in the valley. As more data comes in I will have a better idea of what will likely transpire.
For now, keep those umbrellas handy with showers expected to continue tonight and into Tuesday. Winter coats will likely also be a must as temps will rapidly fall tomorrow afternoon. Have a good one and stay up to date with us for the latest!
Cloudy skies hanging around this afternoon, looking at Newfound Gap in the Smokies. Light scattered showers are moving through as well, eventually moving out by this evening and overnight. Changes are on the way though late this weekend and early next week with much colder temperatures in the forecast.
Looking at the latest surface map, a low pressure system to the west is bringing light scattered showers throughout today, ending overnight. Following this, we will get a brief reprieve Saturday before another system arrives late Sunday and into early next week. This next system will bring showers through Monday and into early Tuesday afternoon before much colder air funnels in from the north. We are expecting high's back into the low to mid 40's by mid next week.
Looking at model guidance below, showers will fade out the second half of today. To start the weekend, mild, with partly cloudy skies and high's near average (low to mid 50's). Getting into Sunday, clouds build back in as showers arrive overnight Sunday and into Monday. This next round will be heavy at times with rumbles of thunder included as well. On the tail-end of the system we could see some wintry precipitation as well, very similar to the last system. As of now, not expecting any accumulations for the valley but we will keep an eye on this as we get closer to time.
That wraps up the forecast for today but have a great weekend! As always, you can follow the latest weather updates and conditions on our social media (Twitter: @SecretCityWx & Facebook: Secret City Weather).
Another beautiful day in store today with sunny skies and high's in the mid 50's. In other good news, the latest drought map shows zero abnormalities across the board. December is typically one of our wettest months, so I expect no changes by the years end.
For the latest surface map, we can thank the high pressure system sitting over the area for the good weather we have had. Unfortunately, changes arrive into tonight and Friday. A system to the west will bring cloud cover in overnight and scattered showers by tomorrow late morning and into the afternoon.
Looking at model guidance, we will stay dry overnight with showers developing and moving in by Friday. The good news with this next system is the light and quick moving nature it will possess. We are giving it a 40% chance of probability and coverage for east TN before it moves out Friday night. This will set up another comfortable day for Saturday with high's in the mid 50's and partly cloudy skies.
That concludes today's forecast so enjoy the seasonable conditions before scattered showers arrive to close out the work week.
Wow! Look at this shot overlooking Clingman's Dome this afternoon. High's today will get back near average in the lower 50's with tomorrow in the mid 50's.
With ridging still in place over the region, there is little to discuss the next couple of days besides the sun filled skies and average temps. Changes do arrive Friday, as a weak system to the west will bring scattered showers through the day. Not to worry though, this system will be quick moving and light, leaving us with a mostly dry Saturday.
Looking into mid December, cooler temperatures are expected to return. Slightly below average temperatures and above average precipitation are in the forecast. Keep in mind these graphics are for December 11-17th.
That will wrap up today's forecast across east TN but go out and enjoy these seasonable conditions.
Good afternoon everyone! It has been a rather chilly day with temperatures at 40 degrees right now. As we get into tonight, clouds will begin decreasing. This will allow for sunny skies and warmer temperatures to begin working back in Wednesday and Thursday. As you can see below, ridging is taking place over the region as a high pressure system in the south works in.
As you can expect with ridging over the area, we will stay dry the next couple of days with the threat of some moisture (rain) moving in by late Thursday night and into Friday. This next system will be rather quick and light with sunny skies returning by Saturday and into the weekend.
Getting into tomorrow, temperatures will be back near average in the lower 50's. Thursday will be seasonable with sunny skies and high's in the mid 50's. Have a good rest of your Monday!
Happy Monday to all! It was a cold one this morning and continues to be this afternoon. Though we weren't expecting accumulations in the valley, we were in the higher elevations. Check out the latest view from the Newfound Gap area of the smokies. A few inches fell overnight and will continue to grow through this afternoon.
As for our surface map, the higher elevations to the east will continue to feel snowfall through the day and into the overnight hours tonight. A few remnant snow flurries can't be ruled out through the day here, but no accumulations are expected. High's today will be chilly, in the upper 30's, near 40 degrees. As we get into Tuesday, a high pressure system will begin working in clearing things up and increasing temperatures.
Model guidance is still suggesting remnant snow showers/flurries continuing into this afternoon and evening as this system continues to push eastward. Getting into Tuesday, clouds will begin thinning out allowing for pockets of sunshine throughout the day. Wednesday, sunny skies return along with temperatures back in the low 50's.
The "chill" will continue to stick around into Tuesday, so be sure to dress warm. Have a good start to the work week!
Check out this shot from the Stansfield's webcam in the Oak Ridge area. Things appear to be pretty calm but changes are quickly on the way this evening/overnight. If you recall the system that just passed through yesterday, we will be feeling another round of moisture from the north as moisture wraps around the surface low. With east TN being on the cold side of this storm, we have the chance to see snowfall overnight.
Looking at the current surface map below, the arrows show the movement of this wrap around moisture tonight. Think of this storm (if it were stationary) as spinning counterclockwise. Now, imagine this counterclockwise flow while move in an east/northeast direction. We are receiving the effects of this "wrap around". Precipitation from this system will end by early tomorrow afternoon leaving us cool and dry for first half of the week. Of course with frozen precipitation involved, we will be at or below freezing working into Monday. Expect much cooler temperatures to start the new work week with high's only in the upper 30's, around 40 degrees, here in the valley.
There are many advisories/watches/warnings out tonight and into Monday so be aware of the weather hazards. Specifically for the higher elevations there is a winter weather advisory for those in the Plateau, northern TN, and foothills of the Smokies. Working further to the east a winter storm WARNING is in effect with snow accumulations of 6+ inches likely in the highest peaks of the Smokies. This map also paints a good picture for snow accumulations overnight:
Accumulations by area:
The valley: nothing to up to a dusting
The Plateau and northern TN: up to half an inch
The foothills of the Smokies (east of the valley): 1-2"
The Smokies: 3-6" with the higher peaks getting up to 10"
Here is the latest from model guidance below. Showers will begin moving in (from the north) around midnight and begin transitioning to frozen precipitation early Monday morning. With warmer air trapped in the valleys, snowfall will be limited. As you get into the Plateau and Smokies, snowfall increases with cooler temperatures in the higher elevations. For the majority of us overnight, temperatures will near freezing leaving a majority of rain here in the valley and a few flakes on the tail-end. This all depends on when the cold air arrives from the north. Nonetheless, for those in higher areas of the valley, and those outside of the valley, be cautious of slick spots in the morning hours. The Great Smoky Mountains National Park Service has already closed numerous roads ahead of the heavy snowfall expected overnight and into Monday.
Continue staying up to date with us overnight and use caution in the morning hours, as snowfall is expected for most outside of the valley.