Starting off with a look at the day 2 (Wednesday) flood potential. WPC has placed most of the area under a slight (2/4) risk for flash flooding. The good news is we miss quite a bit of rainfall today, with the much higher amounts across Kentucky. With that said, we will get our turn starting late tomorrow and becoming more pronounced on Thursday. I will emphasize a bit this week that flash flood potential increases each day moving forward, and will be the best potential in slow moving thunderstorms and for areas that see repeated activity.
Breaking down one of the larger and more grainy models, showers/storms hang mainly north today, as an upper level disturbances passes through. A frontal boundary remains in place across Kentucky, but will begin to wash out through tonight and into tomorrow. As it does so, a secondary and stronger front will work in toward Thursday, bringing much better shower and storm chances to the area. This will slide into Tennessee, before stalling out across the area. As it does so, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will find us Friday and through the weekend. We will keep an eye on this upcoming boundary, is it could swing further south (good news) or continue to bring lots of rainfall to East Tennessee. Check back in with us tomorrow for more details!
If you have outdoors plans, today and tomorrow will likely be your best time. Though showers and storms will be in the forecast, chances are the lowest (50-60% chance) these two days. Activity will pick up and become widespread by Thursday, and likely, most of the weekend. Rainfall amounts through early next week will range from 4-7 inches. Flooding will be a concern all week, especially into the weekend.
Pre-recorded for 5pm weather broadcast
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