Drought Improves Some, Chilly Air Sticks Around, Warmer Next Week

11/18/2022

Another chilly start for many, as 11 am temperatures remain in the mid to upper 30s. As we move forward, don't expect much to change as highs stay in the 40s with overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s through the weekend. What has changed (some) are the drought conditions. Though it may not look like it, there has been some improvement since last week, with nearly all the severe drought vanishing. There remains a few counties in the far southeast, but this should change by next week. Keep in mind these drought maps are initialized on Mondays, before going through a review process and being fully published on Thursday. This means the rainfall we had earlier in the week was not accounted for in these maps. We will see what next week map holds, but I suspect continued improvement is likely.

Tying the state drought to the latest 7-day rainfall/soil moisture, you can see the big changes. The aid of two passing disturbances brought a big change to soil moisture conditions (much needed). We could still use more, but this was a good start- further pushing confidence that the drought map will improve again next week. With that said, rainfall looks little to none over the next 5-6 days, so we could veer drier if rainfall doesn't arrive on or just after Thanksgiving.

As mentioned, temperatures will remain well below average through the weekend. BUT, changes are in the forecast longer term. High pressure will reassert itself across the area by early next week, helping to boost highs back in the 50s to around 60 through the week. Generally, low 50s Monday moderating to the upper 50s by Thanksgiving Day.

Overall, sunny to partly sunny skies and cool temperatures remain through Sunday, before a warm up much of next week. As of now, there could be a few showers arriving on Thanksgiving, but we will have to keep an eye on the timing which is a challenge pinpointing this far out. For now, stay warm and have a wonderful weekend!