Cloud cover has worked in a bit thicker this morning as an upper level low works eastward. This will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances late today and especially into Thursday. It is important to highlight that the WPC has placed East Tennessee (today and tomorrow) under a slight (10-20%) of flash flooding risk. Those in low-lying areas, flood prone locations, and near water bodies should use caution and stay tune to watches and warnings issued by the NWS.
The image below depicts precipitable water. This means the amount of water in the atmosphere for a vertical column of air if it were to all fall as rain. In this case, most locations are in the 1.75 to 2 inch mark (WELL above average). Some spots, as highlighted in yellow, are near 2.5 inches. This could lead to flash flooding & rising water quickly if storms track over similar locations through the day. Again use caution and stay abreast to the latest alerts from the NWS.
As we work through the next couple of days, the pattern remains much of the same. Afternoon heating combined with a very moist atmosphere will allow for showers & thunderstorms to develop during the late morning and through the evening hours. Things begin dissipating overnight before reforming again the next day. Luckily, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Drier conditions look to find us Sunday and into early next week.
Though the severe threat is low, flash flooding is a medium concern. Storms that "train" or follow similar paths can quickly create rising water and flash flooding. Most shower and storm activity will be slow moving, only adding to the concern.
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