Hot Now, But Cooler Air Is In Sight

Good morning! Many are sitting (9 AM) in the low to mid 70s, with much warmer air to arrive into the afternoon. Starting first (below), our drought map is looking excellent. Other than a very small blotch of abnormally dry conditions across southern Middle Tennessee, the rest of the state is normal or exceeding normal (surplus of moisture). That being said, the outlooks moving forward, coupled with the dry week we have had thus far, could bring a turn to the area. This will be something worth monitoring, especially for agriculture folks or those who rely on water and/or dry surface conditions.

The next hot topic, literally, are the temperatures moving forward. A weak cold front lies across a portion of the area today, but will do little to limit the heat. As such, highs in the lower 90s can be expected for most. Like today, Thursday will be a touch warmer. Values in the low to mid 90s can be expected with even warmer air Friday. That said, there is a catch on Friday high temperatures. Looking below, here is what some models think we could achieve (mid to upper 90s). Now the catch...a series of passing disturbances will bring the threat of isolated showers in the far north and east, with the bigger question on associated cloud cover. If these disturbances can maintain themselves a bit better south and east, associated cloud cover could limit highs from achieving mid to upper 90s for the day Friday. Likewise, if activity dissipates sooner or earlier in the day, hot - near record highs- will be possible. 

Extending the scope through the remainder of the month, relief is in sight. In fact, we will see a big change as early as Sunday. A passing cold front, bringing isolated to scattered shower/storm chances this weekend, will allow cooler air to filter in by late weekend (highs in the 80s). This will continue through the greater portion of next week, where the CPC suggests a dip to below average temperatures may even be possible. On the other side of the spectrum, below average rainfall remains in the outlook, again leading to the mentioned drought concerns moving forward. 

Heat safety should be priority number one today through Friday, as highs in the 90s combined with humidity will leave feel-like temperatures in the triple digits. In all likelihood, a heat advisory (most likely) to an excessive heat warning is possible both Thursday and more certainly on Friday. Drink plenty of fluids, wear light colored clothing if outdoors, and take frequent breaks.