Secret City Weather
  • Home
  • About
  • 5-Day Forecast
  • Radar
  • Contact
  • Services
  • News & More
    • Submissions
    • Almanac
  • Home
  • About
  • 5-Day Forecast
  • Radar
  • Contact
  • Services
  • News & More
    • Submissions
    • Almanac

   What You Can Expect                                           

Keep The Umbrellas Handy

12/12/2019

0 Comments

 
Good afternoon! As a low continues to track north, rain will continue to fall through the day today and into Saturday. Most showers will be scattered and light, with steadier amounts arriving this evening and overnight. A brief break will come Sunday before another system to the west arrives by the start of the new work week. 
Picture
As model guidance is suggesting, and what we have seen so far, showers will remain scattered through the daytime hours. Working into tonight, showers will pick up and become more widespread. This will carry into Saturday before moving out tomorrow afternoon and overnight. Sunday we will stay dry most of the day before showers return overnight and into Monday. This second system will eventually move out early Tuesday leaving cooler and drier air for the remainder of next week. 
Picture
The latest data suggests up to an inch of rainfall throughout east TN through Saturday afternoon. Up to now, most of east Tennessee has received 0.1-0.2 inches of rainfall today. With heavier and more widespread showers arriving tonight, I am tending to agree with the latest data outputs. 

For clarification, this is what is known as a PLUME. Essentially this is a model outputting ensemble data for a specific variable (this case precipitation amounts). Ensemble means multiple runs of the model with slightly different initial conditions. In an easier sense, the data below is a single model (SREF) suggesting the rainfall for the next 2 days. Instead of a single output seen on your typical graphical model, ensembles change the initial conditions for each run creating a slew of results. The mean of the runs is then used and expressed as the mostly likely result. This is very similar to hurricane models and spaghetti plots. The "cone" provided by the NHC is the average (or most likely path) the hurricane will follow. The middle of the cone is the most likely path but anywhere within the cone is possible. Hence why the closer in time the more confidence (smaller/tighter cone) and the further out, the wider the cone is with less confidence. 
Picture
If you have any further questions about ensemble data or weather as a whole don't hesitate to ask. For now, stay dry as rain continues to be in the forecast for the next several days. Have a good weekend!
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Donate Today
    Your trusted source for everything weather in East Tennessee.

    Social Media
    Follow us!

    Tweets by SecretCityWX
    Follow @SecretCityWX
    Tweet #SECRETCITYWX

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019

Proudly powered by Weebly