Messy System Pushes Through Today/Tonight

Good morning all! Lots to break down so let's jump right into it. First, these are the current hazards in place from the NWS. Purples indicate a Winter Weather Advisory, with a flood watch (green) highlighting nearly all of East Tennessee today/tonight.

Breaking this down the main threat through this evening will be the rainfall. Flooding and flash flooding will be a big concern as rates could be as high as 1.5 inches over 6 hours (second graphic below) this evening.  This will be on top of the rainfall (0.75-1") we received Wednesday and what we pick up through the daytime hours today. Totals this morning through Friday will be in the ballpark of 2-3" with locally higher amounts certainly not ruled out. In total (Wednesday through Friday) the Plateau and western half of the valley can expect 3-6" while the eastern half will range between 2-4" of rainfall.

6-hour rainfall rates

As the front moves through and colder air filters in, the changeover to a wintry mix is likely. The big question is how much? With a winter weather advisory in effect for the Plateau and northern valley (counties bordering KY), the NWS feels confident with ice accumulations up to 0.1". If this turns out to be so, power outages, very hazardous roads, and downed trees are possible. Probability wise, the chances are low to medium. Looking below shows the opportunity for 0.1" of freezing rain or greater. As you can see, most of the Plateau sits in the 20-40% range. The further north you are located, the higher the probability of seeing this potential. Roadways and the commute Friday morning could be rough for those in these locations, so avoid travel if possible, take it slow, and account for extra commute times. If colder air is slower to arrive, those in the plateau and northern valley will fair better. This will impact the highest terrain in these locations first, gradually creeping to lower plateau locations with time. As for the valley, we should fair fine with little to no impacts expected (winter weather wise). All will face a flooding/flash flooding threat, so have a way to receive alerts if warnings are issued (especially late this afternoon, evening, and early overnight).

This is just one of many models breaking down the messy system passing through today and tonight. Lingering showers/wintry mix will be possible Friday morning, before gradually clearing skies arrive in the evening and overnight. Colder air will also be in place, with highs Friday in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Gradually warming temperatures and sunshine will be around for the weekend and into next week.

Lots was discussed today and weather conditions will vary depending on where you are. The big take away today is the potential for flooding/flash flooding region wide, and the chance for light ice accumulations in the Plateau and northern valley (counties bordering KY). Have a way to receive warnings, and come up with a game plan now if you are in flood prone locations. Don't forget to check out our video forecast below, as more details and information is provided. Be safe and send us any reports you have!

                                                                    Pre-recorded for 5pm show