On & Off Storms Through Tomorrow Morning- Some Could Be Strong

A depressing morning across the Volunteer State as many webcams depict cloud cover and patchy fog. I wish I had better news in saying a bright, sunny, and warm day was ahead, but that is not so. Instead, showers and storms are on the way from Central Kentucky (8:45 am radar scan), with more on the way later in the day. This afternoon will be the "best" time for any out and about errands, though scattered showers or storms will be possible. Into tonight, activity returns as a weak cold front approaches from the west.

Looking at the threats for the day, both a severe and flash flooding one are present. Showers (as seen above) will fill in for a portion of the area this morning, before moving out early this afternoon. This will give way to a mix of sunshine and clouds, with scattered storms still possible this afternoon. Depending on the evolution of our next cluster of storms and how much energy we gain from clearer skies/heating this afternoon, we could see some strong storms tonight into Tuesday morning. The primary threat will be winds, but some hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Flash flooding will also be possible (continued below).

What is most in question for me is where the better thunderstorms line up. Previous guidance suggested this swath be across East Tennessee, but more recent data (only 2 examples below) depict this further west (Middle TN). Assuming this trend holds, good news for us. The unfortunate news is that models really struggle with the evolution and depiction of these systems, so as good as these look (for East Tennessee), they likely will not pan out this way. That said, we fair better than locations west and it will be something to closely monitor tonight. With heavy rains yesterday and scattered activity this morning and afternoon, any heavy or repeated thunderstorms over a spot could pose isolated flash flooding concerns tonight. Have a way to receive warnings if issued!

Showers or storms vacate the area by Tuesday afternoon/early evening, allowed by clearing skies into Wednesday. Any big outdoor plans this week? Wednesday is by far the best day to knock them out! It will be sunny, warm (around 80), and pleasant. Shower and storm chances then return in very low chances Thursday, with better chances Friday into the weekend during the afternoon and evening hours each day. Check out our video forecast below for more information.

Pre-recorded for 5pm weather broadcast