Rain Gear Off Tonight, Winter Gear On Ahead

Good morning! Lots to touch on the next couple of days, so we'll jump right to it. There is a low-end severe risk for storms this afternoon to early evening, with the timing of highest showers and a few storms 12pm to 5pm. Strong to damaging wind gusts within storms or heavy showers is the primary threat. Outside of thunderstorms altogether, winds will be gusty today. A wind advisory is in place through 7 am EST Saturday for the valley, as gusts of 40 to even 50 mph are possible. Those in the plateau could see gusts of 40 to 60 mph, and the Smokies are off the chart readings, pushing 80+ mph.  The highest wind gusts will come late this afternoon/evening and into tonight. Aside from the gusty winds threat, both in and outside of showers/storms, highs today will be seasonably pleasant, topping out in the low to mid 50s. Enjoy those as you can this afternoon, as MUCH colder air is en route late weekend and throughout much of next week.

Confidence continues to grow in the threat of wintry precipitation next week. As it appears now, two bouts of snowfall are possible (more on this below). Looking at the threat for at least minor driving impacts, a 40-50% is in place across East Tennessee, meaning there could be numerous slick spots if you are planning to be on the roadways MLK Jr. Day and through midweek. 

And now, drum roll....Here is our first official snowfall forecast. We wanted to get this in before the weekend so you can plan for travel concerns, potential closures, holiday plans, etc for early next week. We will emphasize the fact this is likely to change, but this is our best guess as of this morning. As touched on above, there will be two periods of note. First Sunday night through Monday, light snowfall accumulations within scattered snow showers are possible. The better bet comes Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening, where better snowfall rates and more consistent activity is forecast. Altogether though, the map below depicts our expectations (Sunday night through Tuesday night).
 Here is our breakdown Sunday night through Tuesday night:
Valley: 1-3" more uncertainty south of I-40
Plateau: 2-4" with higher amounts possible
Foothills: 3-6" with higher amounts possible
Smokies: 4-8" with higher amounts on the steeper terrain

Keep in mind CHANGES ARE LIKELY, this is just a first guess. The biggest question marks are on the amount of available moisture, which impacts how much snowfall we could see. Temperatures will be sufficiently cold enough for snow overall, it's a matter of the residence time of each system and the moisture associated. Tune back for further updates!

The biggest threat next week, by far, will be the VERY cold air. An Arctic air mass is expected to settle in post snow, bringing the coldest air of the season so far, and potential record temperatures. Highs may struggle to top 30 degrees Monday- Wednesday, with overnight lows in the teens to single digits. Wind chills of single digits or sub-zero are likely. Snow on the ground could further the cooler temperatures, so prepare now for very cold values.

Video Created As Of 9:45 AM 1/12/24