On a rare but not impossible change, the SPC has back tracked their outlook. The Storm Prediction Center bumped the area up to a slight last night, before downgrading us this morning. As we mentioned yesterday, we feel the risk for severe weather is low but not ruled out. With that said, scattered showers and storms will develop later this afternoon and evening, a couple of which could become severe. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts, but hail is also possible.
As for the time being, pretty quiet across the area. A developing isolated cell is west of Wartburg, while showers across Gatlinburg. As a cold front drifts east this afternoon, activity will pick up. Scattered widespread showers/storms will find us. It is very possible not everyone sees rainfall today given the set up.
Guidance depicts the showers and storms towards this evening and into the overnight, before tapering off early Thursday. High pressure will then meander in from the west, bringing drier conditions Thursday and a large part of Friday. A nearby disturbance will bring isolated to scattered shower/storm chances Friday and Saturday afternoon, otherwise drier and warming conditions return Sunday and early next week.
Though the severe weather threat is low, its not entirely ruled out. A few isolated rogue strong to severe cells will be possible, before showers finish us out overnight. For now get out and enjoy the calm conditions, before activity picks up a bit later this afternoon and into the evening.
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