Another bout of severe weather is on our radar this week as a low will develop to our south and work north and east. The latest Day 3 (Thursday) release from the SPC has parts of East Tennessee under a slight risk for severe storms. We will keep a close eye on the expansion of this as the parameters look favorable for strong storms across the Southeast.
Breaking this down a bit further, a low working through the plains will bring limited chances for rain late tonight and through Wednesday. As this works northward, a secondary low is expected to develop and work north and east. This secondary one is what we'll watch closely. Initial showers will arrive Thursday morning but strong to severe storms will arrive in the late afternoon and evening. All forms of severe weather are on the table: Damaging winds, hail, and (for now) isolated spin-up. Again, I would check back in as we could see severe risks expanded from the SPC this afternoon and ahead.
In addition to the NWS defined severe weather, flash flooding will also be a concern. As heavy showers and storms set up through Thursday, water levels can quickly rise. Looking at one of many model runs, the axes of heavy rain will be across northern Alabama and central Tennessee. Watch for a shift in this line as there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with where this will set up.
Cloud cover will dominate much of today but we should stay dry through this evening. A few isolated showers find us tomorrow but heavy showers and storms follow for Thursday. Continue to check back in for updates & practice your severe weather plan ahead of time.
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