Though it may be warm and gloomy here at home, severe weather is likely on the horizon for our friends to the south and west. Looking from left to right (Day 1 to Day 2 SPC outlook) a MODERATE risk encompasses parts of Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, and west Tennessee. With a categorical risk of 4/5, confidence is high that severe weather (damaging winds, heavy rains, and large tornadoes) are possible this afternoon. If you have friends and family in these areas let them know the risks today and that they take the proper precautions to ensure their safety. On the right, SPC day-2 has east TN under a marginal risk (1/5) for Saturday. Even though confidence for severe weather is low, the chance for damaging winds, heavy downpours, and isolated spin-up remains.
Looking at the latest surface map, the powerful system sits just to the south and west providing lots of rainfall for the south and heavy snow storms to the north. This system will work through tomorrow before we clear out Sunday. Enjoy the drier conditions Sunday as more rain arrives early next week.
Looking at the highest resolution short-term model offered, scattered showers are possible this afternoon, though for the most part, we will stay dry through much of today. Getting into Saturday, scattered showers and gusty winds (up to 25 mph) continue into the first half of the day before a long line of strong showers and storms works through. The timing of this will fall between 5pm and 8pm. Within this timeframe is our best chance for severe weather. The biggest hazards associated will be damaging winds but isolated spin-up cannot be ruled out. Once this line passes through, cooler and drier air will work in overnight allowing for partly sunny skies on Sunday.
For more analysis on this system, refer to our daily video below. We will be updating you with the latest via social media tomorrow, so be sure to check in and STAY WEATHER AWARE tomorrow afternoon/evening. Have a great weekend!
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