First things first, a heat advisory has been issued for today, as heat indices will peak out between 100 and 105. Temperatures themselves will find the low to mid 90s, so keep heat safety a top priority. Given the heat and muggy conditions, this is a prime environment for showers & storms to develop in.
Because of this, a slight risk of severe storms is in place today and will be in place again tomorrow. Given the lack of true forcing and support in the upper levels, storms will be slow moving but strong at times. As such, heavy downpours can be expected in these storms, warranting the opportunity for flash flooding. This is highlighted by the Marginal & Slight risk of flash flooding (bottom right). In terms of severe hazards, damaging wind gusts is the main threat, but isolated instances of large hail will also be possible. Keep in mind as well, Thursday will almost be a carbon copy of today, with showers storms developing in the afternoon and some becoming strong to severe. Have a way to receive alerts and know what to do if severe or hydro related warnings are issued.
Looking at model guidance, it is hard to say who and where activity will be seen. Given the lack of true forcing, showers and storms will be quite "random". Some may see activity, while others miss it entirely (welcome to summer, huh). I can say though, those that do see activity will at least see heavy rain and gusty winds. Some areas are still in much need of rainfall, so hopefully some of these storms work through these locations.
Overall, hit and miss showers/storms will be the trend today and tomorrow. A cold front will then build in Friday and the weekend, bringing another bout of strong to severe storms and widespread activity. Have a way to receive alerts the next few days as well as keep your heat safety in mind!
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