Happy Thanksgiving Eve! Cloud cover will continue increasing today as a strong front will work across the area. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has extended the Marginal Risk for severe storms to include parts of East Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Timing continues to be later into the afternoon and early into the evening (the commute timeframe).
A look at what model guidance is suggesting, we'll see strong showers and a few storms start in Western Tennessee and continue eastward, slowly weakening as they move. Depending when these storms fire up will give us an idea when we can best expect the line of showers/storms to move across our area. Assuming a quicker arrival time (as suggested more recently), I anticipate showers/storms to hold a bit more strength. This means gusty to damaging winds, heavy downpours, and lightning are possible this evening. Total rainfall accumulations will vary throughout the area as pockets of storms will provide heavier totals. In general, a nice bed near half an inch will be possible given the likelihood for stronger showers. Be sure to check in for updates this afternoon and evening.
The good news with this system tonight is we'll clear out quickly, allowing for a gorgeous Thanksgiving. As you can see below, your Turkey Day forecast will include lots of sunshine and high's in the mid 60's. Though this doesn't set any records, it will be an above average day. Knoxville typically averages high's in the upper 50's for Thanksgiving so enjoy this mild weather.
Be weary of strong to isolated severe storms later this afternoon and evening. We'll see clearing in behind this followed with beautiful conditions for Thanksgiving. A sneak peak longer term shows the chance for a few flakes (don't get too excited) later in the forecasting period. We'll highlight this ahead, but for now, stay safe and have a wonderful Thanksgiving!
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