Diving right into it, reports of closed roads and flooding conditions are coming in around Hamilton county as storms continue to pound southeastern Tennessee. The SPC outlook for today has upgraded the region to bring Oak Ridge and west to an Enhanced risk of severe storms. Chattanooga remains under a moderate (4/5) risk through tonight. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat (60mph and greater) but 1" or greater hail, and isolated strong tornadoes (especially I-75 and west) are all possible.
In addition to the high potential for severe weather across parts of the state today, flash flooding also poses a moderate (20-50%) risk. Chattanooga and southeast TN are under a moderate risk, while the remainder of the region lies under a slight (10-20%) risk. Flash flooding reports are already coming in and will continue through the overnight and morning hours of Friday. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
High-resolution short-term model guidance depicts rainfall totals as high as 6+ inches across Hamilton county before the day ends. This is a substantial amount of rain within a 12 to 16 hour period, so anticipate flash flood warnings throughout the area overnight.
Breaking down future radar, heavy showers and storms will continue this afternoon with a bit of a lull for middle Tennessee over the next few hours. A cold front will then bring strong to severe storms (from west to east) this evening and overnight. The "prime" time period we'll be watching is from 10pm to 2am. Storms will likely impact Middle TN and Northern Alabama the hardest. A tornado WATCH (meaning the environment is favorable for tornadoes through the afternoon) has been issued for much of Alabama, Mississippi, and southern Middle Tennessee through 9pm (8pm CDT) tonight.
PLEASE adhere to watches and warnings this afternoon/evening/night. The biggest threat remains damaging winds and flooding but as the cold front draws in tonight, large hail and tornadoes will be possible. This is especially so for counties west of I-75. Use caution, remain weather aware, and know your plan if severe weather strikes your location. We'll continue to provide updates on Twitter and Facebook, but don't forget to check out our video forecast below. Lots of additional details included.
Pre-recorded for 5pm show
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