Showers and rumbles of thunder are working through east TN now and will continue throughout this afternoon. With a nice bed of atmospheric parameters in place, we will likely see strong to severe storms work in this evening and overnight. As seen below, these will mainly be limited to the southern half of the valley. The biggest threat will be damaging winds but hail and isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
The low pressure system will continue to work through today as a front slides in. Along the warm front, data suggests strong convection will develop this evening. This will provide the opportunity for stronger to severe storms to slide through east TN before we begin clearing out late overnight.
Looking more in depth, the HRRR (a model) has done a good job with picking up areas of heavier showers late this morning. As we get into the afternoon, showers will become more scattered before the low draws closer. If you look toward the end of the animation, the model suggests heavier storms working through the southern valley (dark orange, reds, and purples). The timing of these heavier showers/storms falls between 9 PM and midnight.
Be sure to have a way to receive watches and warnings this evening. We are getting our first taste of the Spring "Severe Season" with more likely ahead (possibly this weekend). As always, check in with us on Twitter & Facebook as we'll have the latest! Stay safe and stay weather aware tonight.
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