The trend over the next few weeks shows average to above average temperatures for most of the continuous United States. This track is from January 9th to January 15th, 2019. So... What temperatures can you expect for the East Tennessee area? Well for the month of January, the average high is around 45° with a low of 28°. For the next few weeks ahead, expect the bulk of highs between 48°- 55° and lows mainly between 33°-40°. As for the later part of January look for cooler temperatures and the possibility of winter weather. The Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Sevierville, Clinton, Loudon and associated towns/cities average 2.5 inches of snow for the month of January. It is likely, analyzing the world oscillations, that changes in temperature for the later part of January are likely to occur, bringing cooler temperatures.
As for the figure below, this is evidence that the trend for warmer temperatures over the next couple of weeks is high. The North American Oscillation (NAO) is one of many oscillations that meteorologist look at for climatic patterns. Though these are not perfect by any means, they are good guides to use when giving forecasts. High NAO values indicate higher temperatures and less chances of snow amounts over much of the mid-to southeastern US. The opposite can be said for the northeast. With high NAO values, the potential of lower than average temperatures and higher snow amounts over the course of the next few weeks is likely. Comparing the two figures, it can be seen that the northeast is expected by both models to have lower than average temperatures.
Check back in for more updates, discussions, and forecasts for the east Tennessee area!
Sources: NOAA, NWS
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